Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Lakers Leap on Tired Warriors Team

The Golden State Warriors escaped Game 7 against the Sacramento Kings behind a record-setting 50-point performance from Stephen Curry. And with little rest following a gruelling series, they will host the Los Angeles Lakers — who finished up their first-round series on Friday — in the first game of the Western Conference semifinals.

Can Curry & Co. secure a win on short rest, or will LeBron James and the fresh legs of the Lakers steal home court away?

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 on Tuesday, May 2.

Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 best odds

Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 picks and predictions

The NBA playoffs, for as exciting as they are for fans, can be an absolute gauntlet for the players. Take the Warriors for example, who will have to open up their second round series just two days removed from an intense seven-game battle with the third-seeded Kings.

Stephen Curry's record-setting 50 points in a Game 7 was an all-time performance to behold, but the toll it could take on him over the course of this series shouldn't be understated. In fact, this series between the Lakers and Warriors is the only playoff series this year to not feature more than one day of rest between games, and Curry averaged 39.1 minutes per game in the first round.

Klay Thompson also averaged 35.9 MPG, and Draymond Green averaged a more manageable 31.8, but the latter played 38 minutes on Sunday and may not be as fresh as needed. Meanwhile, the Lakers will be coming in with three days of rest, and even have the added benefit of keeping their starters' minutes down in that latest game given it was a 40-point blowout.

Not helping the matter is that the Warriors played to the fastest pace in the first round, and the Lakers played to the sixth-fastest. Expecting Golden State to run fast and efficiently on both ends of the floor is a tall ask with that in mind.

The Warriors' trademark strength of three-point shooting will be challenged against a Lakers team that allowed just a 31.2% 3-point percentage in the first round. Golden State managed the second-worst 3-point percentage in the first round at 30.6% against a Kings team that allowed the fifth-highest 3-point percentage during the regular season.

It's a questionable matchup with even more questionable circumstances for the Warriors, so take the Lakers to draw first blood.

My best bet: Lakers moneyline (+165 at PointsBet)

Lakers vs Warriors same-game parlay

Lakers ML

Warriors Team Total Under 117.5 points

Klay Thompson Under 22.5 points

+400 at DraftKings

By Jared Hochman

 If we're going on the Lakers moneyline, assume the Warriors' 3-point shooting struggles will continue — a fair bet considering LA was one of the better defensive teams in the league down the stretch — then we'll also key in on fading the Dubs' offense... particularly Klay Thompson.

Thompson is shooting just 30.8% (21.1% from three) from the field over his last two games, and now he has to face a Lakers team that held the Grizzlies guards to just 40.4% shooting in the first round.

Betting on him to score 22 points or fewer — a number he failed to top in five of seven games against the Kings — is something we're willing to do, and factoring in that Golden State will also have tired legs... then it's not a stretch to see the entire team be a little lackluster on offense tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 spread and Over/Under analysis

The Lakers have gone an equal 44-44-1 against the spread this year, but have notably kept the third-best average spread margin on the year at +2.2.

They come into Tuesday's game with three days of rest to Golden State's one, and they have gone 13-10 ATS this year with a rest advantage (56.5%). But as a road underdog, they have gone just 15-19-1 (44.1%).

Los Angeles has been an entirely different team since rounding out their roster at the trade deadline, having gone 18-13 ATS since Feb. 15th (58.0%), which includes a 7-4 outright record as an underdog during that time.

Golden State has gone 42-46-1 ATS this year (47.7%), good for the 10th-worst cover rate on the 2023 season. They have gone 9-11 (45.0%) ATS with a rest disadvantage, but as home favorites they're 23-15-1 (60.5%) — the sixth-best cover rate in that split this year.

The Warriors have failed to cover in the last three games against the Lakers by an average of 10.5 points.

The total opened at 228, and it has since moved to 227 at most shops.

Los Angeles has gone 46-43 to the Over this year (51.7%), with a 27-17 (61.4%) mark on the road, the fourth-highest rate of Overs in that split this year. They have also favored the Over in games in which they were the underdog (29-25, 53.7%) and combining the two, they went 21-14 to the Over as road dogs (60.0%).

The Warriors have gone 47-39-3 to the Over this year, good for the sixth-highest rate of Overs on the year at 54.7%. At home, however, they have actually gone 25-17-2 to the Under (59.5%), which is the third-highest rate of Unders in that split.

These teams played 3-1 to the Under in their four games this year. The Lakers went 4-2 to the Under in the first round, while Golden State went 4-3 that way. However, both teams notably played well to the Over in their opening game.

Lakers vs Warriors betting trend to know

Since rounding out their roster in mid-February, the Lakers have gone 7-4 SU (63.6%) as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Warriors.

Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 game info

Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 key injuries

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