Oops!... They did it again.
For a second consecutive game, the Memphis Grizzlies played with bettors' hearts by pulling themselves out of a large deficit, only to ultimately fall short, losing both moneyline and spread bets to the Utah Jazz.
Utah has been executing with precision over the past couple games and looks to take a commanding lead with a Game 4 victory. But who makes the better NBA betting candidate?
Find out with our Jazz vs. Grizzlies picks and predictions for Monday, May 31.
Jazz vs Grizzlies game info
• Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Monday, May 31, 2021
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Jazz vs Grizzlies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe majority of the action on the spread at FanDuel is coming in on the road favorites, as 82 percent of bets and 87 percent of the money is on the -5.5 Jazz. The total is seeing a similar split in favor of the Over, with 83 percent of bets and 86 percent of money backing the teams to go Over 224.5 (-110).
Check out the full line movement for this gameJazz vs Grizzlies series odds
Jazz: -2,200
Grizzlies: +1,150
Jazz vs Grizzlies betting preview
Injuries
Jazz: None
Grizzlies: None
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 6-0 in Jazz's last six playoff games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Grizzlies.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Stop us if you've heard this before: The Grizzlies got off to a terrible start defensively, letting Utah drill a bunch of wide-open 3-pointers, while fouling too much. They put themselves in a double-digit halftime hole, only to tighten up and roar back, give the Jazz a serious scare, and burn out in the waning minutes. Sound familiar?
Game 3 was a virtual carbon copy of Game 2 and maddeningly frustrating for Grizzlies backers. Memphis has proven that, at its best, it can hang with the Jazz.
The question for betting the rest of this series becomes whether the Grizzlies are capable of sustaining that for an entire game, and the evidence isn't great. Memphis has shown prolonged lapses on both sides of the ball all season, and its best play has been good enough to outweigh those swoons when it flips the switch. It's not cutting it against the Jazz.
Utah moves the ball too well and has too many good shooters for Memphis to gamble on defense as it's seen fit to do. Rather than moving in rotational sync, the Grizz have been caught napping by skip-passes, lost cutters, and closed out either too weak (leaving a shooter wide open) or too strong (fouling on threes).
Memphis, meanwhile, continues to get offensive production when it needs it, largely on Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks' backs. But the execution has been less than stellar, often needing Morant or Brooks to conjure a something-from-nothing attack. If one of them has an off game, Utah has done a good job of neutralizing their supporting cast.
The Grizzlies have, completely defensibly, shown their inexperience in this series. While Morant hunts a Gobert facial like Captain Ahab, Utah is just far too consistent. Memphis will almost inevitably hit a stretch that puts it in too big of a hole.
PREDICTION: Utah -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The books didn't adjust much to another Over, having now hit in all three series games. The total opened at 223.5 and understandably lept up with early action, currently at 224.5
And while these are two good defensive teams that seem almost due for a letdown spot offensively, Game 3's output seems very repeatable, with neither team shooting impossibly well (49/44/81 for Utah, 43/31/85 for Memphis). The game was played at a 97.0 pace, a shade below the series average. And the Grizzlies still look like they're not channeling their A-game as an offensive unit.
If a huge adjustment in either team's game plan was coming, it was likely to rear its head after Game 2's 270-point outlier. But aside from Taylor Jenkins making some ultimately inconsequential tweaks to his bench rotation, both teams mostly kept the status quo.
Utah seems content to push the tempo offensively. And Memphis is probably convinced that if it can stick to the script for a whole game, it can keep things within reach. Don't expect a ton to change for Game 4.
PREDICTION: Over 224.5 (-110)
Prop pick
Ja Morant getting his seems to be given. Morant has averaged 33.7 ppg thus far in this series, topping his Game 4 total (25.5) in all three games. Utah hasn't shown a ton of interest in forcing Ja to pass, staying at home on D, and living with the damage he does, which has been working. So it's entirely possible we see him continue to put these numbers up for the rest of the series.
On the other hand, Jaren Jackson Jr just hasn't been himself at all. It's understandable after he tore his meniscus in the bubble and missed over 80 percent of the regular season. It should've been a sign when Memphis delayed his return so much.
Something is clearly not right with Jackson, whose 3-point stroke is horribly busted (27% in regular season, 25% in playoffs) and only seems to be getting consistent looks on broken plays and in transition. He's failed to score double-digits in two of three games so far, and Memphis doesn't appear to be too keen on sacking the identity they've cultivated this season to force his involvement.
PREDICTION: Ja Morant Over 25.5 points (-115) and Jaren Jackson Jr Under 13.5 points (-110)
Jazz vs Grizzlies betting card
- Utah -5.5 (-110)
- Over 224.5 (-110)
- Ja Morant Over 25.5 points (-115) and Jaren Jackson Jr Under 13.5 points (-110)
Picks made on 5/30/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET
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