When Jayson Tatum was being helped off the court in Game 4, the hopes of Boston Celtics fans swung to the shoulders of Jaylen Brown.
Brown made good on those surging expectations with a packed stat sheet in Game 5’s win over the New York Knicks, scoring 26 points, grabbing eight rebounds, and dishing out a career-high 12 assists.
If Boston is going to stay alive tonight, a lot will hinge on the latest Jaylen Brown odds.
Here’s my best NBA picks for Friday, May 16.
Jaylen Brown player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jaylen Brown best bet
Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 assists (+125 at bet365)
Jaylen Brown was wheeling and dealing in Game 5’s victory, recording 12 assists from a potential 18.0 dimes, according to his advanced metrics.
With Jayson Tatum out of action, Brown is the focal point of the Boston Celtics’ attack and handles the ball more than usual. In the first four games against the New York Knicks, Brown averaged 59.8 touches and 6.5 potential assists. In Game 5, his touches jumped to 64.0, which helped spike his playmaking.
It also helped that Boston broke out of an offensive funk on Wednesday, shooting 52% from the floor, including a 22-for-49 finish from beyond the arc.
Head coach Joe Mazzulla found success in the second half, mixing up his rotations and rolling out a four-guard set with a single center, creating space for ball movement and open shots. The Celtics' assist-to-FGM ratio surged to 69.6% in the final 24 minutes of Game 5.
Brown, who averaged 4.5 assists on the season, has seen his passing prowess peak without Tatum on the floor. In his last 10 games without Tatum alongside, Brown has averaged 6.3 dimes and dished out seven or more helpers in four of those outings.
Player models for Game 6 aren’t as confident in Brown’s playmaking, with those forecasts sitting on his season average of 4.5 dimes. Those projections are influencing the markets, with some books coming down on Brown’s assist Over/Under, while others have moved toward the Over.
There will obviously be some regression after amassing a dozen dimes in Game 5, but that career high wasn’t a fluke. Given his history of being a facilitator without Tatum in the mix, I like Brown to eclipse his assists total at plus-money.
Jaylen Brown same-game parlay
Brown has averaged 6.3 assists over his last 10 games without Tatum in the lineup, and he showed his potential as a passer in Game 5.
Boston will also need buckets from Brown in Game 6, and projections all clear at least 20 points tonight.
Sam Hauser returned to action and could log more minutes with his ankle getting healthy. He shoots nothing but triples, and I like him for two or more tonight.
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