The New York Knicks not only put the Indiana Pacers on their heels with a comeback win in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but they also proved they can win without Jalen Brunson shouldering the offensive load.
Brunson still scored 23 points (after putting up a total of 79 in the first two games) but was limited to 31 minutes due to foul trouble. In his absence, New York’s “other guys” came up big, with three starters putting up 16 points or more and the bench chipping in with 22 points.
Game 4 is a pivotal contest for Brunson & Co. — hence his sky-high scoring total — but my Jalen Brunson predictions and NBA picks are not sure he’ll get there on May 27.
Jalen Brunson player prop picks
- Best bet
Jalen Brunson Under 29.5 points
(-115) - SGP pick
Jalen Brunson Under 29.5 points
Jalen Brunson 7+ assists
Josh Hart 7+ rebounds
(+230)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jalen Brunson best bet
Jalen Brunson Under 29.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Taking the Under on points with an explosive star like Jalen Brunson is not for the faint of heart. I’ll be holding my breath every time he drives to the hoop.
However, there are some things at play in Game 4 that could keep the Knicks guard from crossing the 30-point plateau tonight.
The Indiana Pacers’ intensity wears out opponents, and Brunson is being head-hunted on both ends of the floor. The defense is throwing extra bodies at him and picking him up full court. The Indiana offense is trying to isolate the 6-foot-2 lackluster defender, which has led to foul trouble in two of the three games.
Brunson ranks fourth overall in distance traveled for all four conference finals contenders, despite only logging the eighth-most minutes in this round. For the entire playoffs, only teammate Mikal Bridges has burned through more tread in terms of total miles.
Tired legs lead to shots coming up short and slower feet on defense, which puts Brunson out of position and susceptible to those foul calls we’ve seen in this series.
Secondly, the Pacers could be forced to mix up their defensive assignments on Brunson if Aaron Nesmith is unable to play (game-time decision), or even if he’s slowed by an ankle injury.
Through the first three games of the ECF, Nesmith has found himself shadowing Brunson the most (19+ minutes). Brunson is shooting 50% overall in that matchup — 60% of 2-point FGAs — while getting to the foul line seven times (making all seven FTAs).
Behind Nesmith is Andrew Nembhard, who has become one of the best defenders in the NBA this season. And Brunson is a big reason why. After getting torched by the Knicks’ scorer in last year’s playoffs, Nembhard focused his offseason on improving defensively, and it’s shown.
He’s routinely assigned to star guards, earned Eastern Conference Defensive Player of the Month in January, and would have been on some All-Defensive Team lists if not for the award’s game/minutes eligibility cap.
The Pacers have opted for Nesmith’s length versus Brunson (which worked in Game 3), but Nembhard has still defended Brunson for just over seven minutes in the conference finals, limiting him to 40% shooting and not allowing him to get to the foul line once.
A lot is being made of Nesmith’s possible absence, but Nembhard is up to the challenge.
Game 4 player models believe in Indiana’s defensive approach to Brunson and aren’t as bullish on his output as the oddsmakers or the betting public, which has made the Over 29.5 points from Brunson the most popular prop pick for Game 4.
All projections consulted are coming in short of the 29.5-point total with forecasts ranging from 24.8 to 28 points. My number at 26.2 points.
Given that expectation, the Under 29.5 points from Brunson should lug a price tag around -210, but you can find it at -115 at bet365 — if you’re comfortable being uncomfortable for 48 minutes tonight.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
Jalen Brunson Under 29.5 points
Jalen Brunson 7+ assists
Josh Hart 7+ rebounds
The New York Knicks got a great overall team effort and may not need Brunson to drop 30-plus, with projections all short of that total.
The Pacers will try to take the ball out of Brunson’s hands, and game models all sit north of seven dimes from him in Game 4.
Whether he’s starting or coming off the bench, Josh Hart is hitting the glass hard. He’s projected for eight or more boards and is second in rebounding chances (17.0) among all players in the conference finals.
Knicks vs Pacers betting resources
- Knicks vs. Pacers predictions
- Knicks vs. Pacers props & best bets
- Knicks vs. Pacers same-game parlay
- Tyrese Haliburton predictions
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