The focus heading into the Eastern Conference Finals is on the matchup between Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton. Those looking to the teams more than the superstars tend to focus on the New York Knicks’ defense and the Indiana Pacers’ offense. That overlooks Indiana’s defense, and that is a mistake.
Looking at the Jalen Brunson odds, deference should be given to the Pacers’ diligence on the perimeter before tip at 8:30 ET on Wednesday, May 21.
Jalen Brunson player prop picks
- Best bet
Jalen Brunson Under 2.5 3-pointers
(-110) - SGP pick
Jalen Brunson Under 2.5 3-pointers
Jalen Brunson Under 28.5 points
Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 assists
(+375)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jalen Brunson best bet
Jalen Brunson Under 2.5 3-pointers (-110 at bet365)
The Indiana Pacers denied 3-pointers this season. Looking at the third of the season following the All-Star Break, Indiana ranked No. 3 in opponent 3-point attempt rate, with foes taking just 39% of their shots from deep. Even more notable, opponents made just 34.5% of those attempts, the fourth-best rate in the NBA.
Some of that is scheme, some of that is personnel. And it has continued to apply in the postseason. The Bucks and the Cavaliers combined to make just 33.6% of their 3-pointers against Indiana.
It is the scarcity of looks that may most doom Jalen Brunson.
He has not exactly been chucking liberally this postseason. He is shooting more than he did in the regular season, taking 7.6 threes per game compared to 6.1 in the regular season. But much of that influx can be tied to the Celtics’ defensive preferences.
Boston encourages 3-pointers, opponents taking 43.4% of their shots from deep after the All-Star Break, 10th-highest in the NBA.
That was why Brunson took 7.7 threes per game last round, taking at least eight in five of the six games. Compare that to 7.5 in the first round and you hardly notice, but Brunson took five 3s in one game and four in another against the Pistons.
The Eastern Conference Finals could be a full series of Brunson taking only four and five 3-pointers. More likely, he will hang around six. Regardless, those attempt rates set him up for some Unders in this prop market.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
Jalen Brunson Under 2.5 3-pointers
Jalen Brunson Under 28.5 points
Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 assists
Cutting down on Brunson’s threes will obviously and likely cut down on his points. Even before getting to that thought, this prop is high. Brunson has fallen short of it in five of his last eight games, one exception being by just the hook.
Brunson scores when absolutely needed. And it is a delight to watch. But until then, he tends to involve his New York Knicks teammates, averaging 7.7 assists in the postseason. Hampering looks from deep will not outright wreck those assists, given the way Karl-Anthony Towns rolls to the hoop and Josh Hart cuts along the baseline.
Pacers vs Knicks betting resources
- Pacers vs. Knicks prediction
- Pacers vs. Knicks props & best bets
- Pacers vs. Knicks same-game parlay
- Pacers vs. Knicks series preview
- Tyrese Haliburton predictions & best bets
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