After knocking off the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the Eastern Conference semis, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will meet in the playoffs for a second straight season. This time, however, a trip to the NBA Finals is on the line.
The Pacers reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 with a seven-game series win over the Knicks by rattling off two straight victories, including Game 7 at Madison Square Garden. Most of the Knicks roster was banged up for that series, but can a revamped and healthy lineup put New York over the top and avenge that heartbreaking loss?
No matter the outcome, this series figures to be highly entertaining. Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton have given us multiple go-ahead and game-winning buckets this postseason, and the opposing stars are sure to put on a show on the biggest stage and for our NBA picks, and it all starts with Game 1 on Wednesday, May 21.
All odds courtesy of bet365.
Pacers vs Knicks series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Pacers +135 |
To win |  Knicks -160 |
| Pacers +1.5 (-190) |
Handicap | Knicks -1.5 (+120) |
| Over 5.5 (-190) | Total games | Under 5.5 (+140) |
The New York Knicks are favored to win the series, and the Indiana Pacers are expected to keep it within one game.
The only way that happens is with a 4-3 series victory and Over 5.5 total games. I’m picking the Knicks to win in seven, going chalk on all three selections above.
Pacers vs Knicks series preview
Statistical breakdown
The Pacers and Knicks faced off three times in the regular season, with New York winning twice and finishing the series with a +27 point differential.
Size was a big reason for New York’s success in the regular season series, as the Knicks outrebounded the Pacers 130-101 and outscored them in the paint 186-166. The Knicks posted a more efficient field-goal percentage in all three games and were more efficient from 3-point range in two. Indiana won the turnover battle 32-42.
The Knicks got the better of the Pacers in the regular season, but Indy has been rolling in the postseason, reaching the Conference Finals with just two losses.
The Pacers rank second in offensive rating (117.3), eighth in defensive rating (111.9), and fifth in net rating (5.5) in this year’s playoffs. The Knicks rank ninth in offensive rating (110.7), fifth in defensive rating (110.6), and seventh in net rating (0.1).
The Pacers have played in just two one-possession games this postseason, but both were phenomenal, come-from-behind wins to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in the waning seconds of the games. The Knicks have made close games a regular occurrence, with six of 12 decided by three points or fewer.
New York can capitalize on its size advantage, defensive prowess, and lethal number of key scoring options. Indiana can push the tempo in transition, continue to limit turnovers and fast-break opportunities for its opponent, and play smart basketball on the defensive end.
Pacers vs Knicks series props
Pacers vs Knicks correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers |
+1400 | +1000 | +500 | +550 |
| Knicks |
+800 | +400 | +450 | +400 |
Pick: Knicks to win 4-3 (+400 at bet365)
Knicks in five and seven have the shortest odds, but I can’t fathom New York winning four of the first five against the Pacers. This one screams seven games, and I fully expect this matchup between two evenly matched teams to go the distance.
In this year’s regular season series, the home team won two of three, and the home team won six of seven in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. If we don’t count Game 7 of that series in which New York started multiple backups and both OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson got injured, the home team has won eight of the last nine.
The Pacers were hot to close out the regular season, and they’ve been blistering through their first 10 games of the playoffs. Beating Indiana won’t be a cakewalk for New York, but the Knicks hold home-court advantage, which could be the deciding factor in this series.
Indiana was 29-12 at home and 21-20 on the road this season with a point differential of 4.24 points per game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse compared to 0.22 points per game across all other venues. The Knicks finished with a 27-14 home record and a 24-17 road record. The Knicks outscored opponents by 6.76 points per game at home and 1.44 on the road.
In such a close series, I’m taking the home team and the Clutch Player of the Year, Brunson, to deliver the goods in a classic, seven-game series.
Pacers vs Knicks total games
Pick: Over 6.5 games (+190 at bet365)
This is an easy Over on the 5.5-game line at -190 odds, but we can do so much better by going up one more game.
I expect the Knicks and Pacers to split the first six games of the series and for New York to deliver the knockout blow in Game 7.
Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson have been unbelievably clutch late in games, and both stars will do everything they can to will their teams to victory. This series will be far too close to bet any other line than Over 6.5.
Pacers vs Knicks most threes made
Pick: OG Anunoby (+350 at bet365)
This is a sneaky pick, as Anunoby comes in with the third-shortest odds behind Tyrese Haliburton (+250) and Brunson (+275).
Brunson is tied for second in 3-pointers made and third in 3-pointers attempted in the postseason, going 33 of 91 from beyond the arc. Anunoby is tied for sixth in attempts and seventh in makes with a 29-for-80 mark.
Anunoby has averaged 6.7 attempts from deep in the postseason, but he’s picked up his long-range shot attempts across the last seven games. In that span, Anunoby has attempted 7.6 per game and shot at least 10 thrice. In that span, he’s shot 37.7%.
Though Brunson leads his team in 3-pointers made and attempted, I expect him to be aggressive in attacking the basket against the Pacers.
Indiana has allowed the most free-throw attempts per game in the playoffs at 27.9, and Brunson attempted the most free-throw attempts of his career this season at 6.9. In the postseason, he ranks seventh in free throw attempts at 7.8.
In three regular-season matchups with Indiana, Brunson attempted just 2.7 triples, down from his average of 5.1. Meanwhile, he attempted nearly double that amount of shots from the charity stripe at 5.3.
With Brunson getting in the lane and drawing contact more frequently against Indiana, expect Anunoby to reap the benefits on drive-and-kick opportunities.
Pacers vs Knicks series best bet
Pick: Brunson to win ECF MVP (-130 at bet365)
Brunson is the heavy favorite to win the Larry Bird Trophy this season, with Haliburton next at +190 and Karl-Anthony Towns and Pascal Siakam tied at +1000 to round out the top four.
It’s no surprise that Brunson is the favorite, as he’s the best player on the favored team favored. I’m picking the Knicks to gut this one out in seven, and I expect Brunson to come in clutch down the stretch of multiple fourth quarters in this entertaining series.
Brunson ranks fifth in the playoffs in points per game (28.8) and assists per game (7.7), and the reigning Clutch Player of the Year has provided some big-time buckets and free throws when his team needed him the most.
I expect him to lead his team to the NBA Finals and pick up some hardware on the way.
