How the NBA In-Season Tournament Will Affect Awards & Betting Futures

When the NBA In-Season Tournament odds were released in the summer, the Los Angeles Lakers opened with odds of +1,400 to hoist the NBA Cup. Cash the ticket if you backed the Lakers, but the question now becomes: Will the Lakers winning the NBA Cup affect any other futures markets at the end of the regular season?

If you’ve been following me on X, you’d know I continuously bring up the idea of how the results of the In-Season Tournament might affect the voting for the NBA futures for regular season awards. We’re in a unique position because we literally have no history to help us with this; we’re watching it unfold for the very first time.

The In-Season Tournament games were added to the schedule to help bring more meaning to a select few regular-season games and increase viewership early in the season. Since these games carried more weight and are technically a part of the regular season, does that mean they will impact the voting for awards at the end of the season?

While I don’t think the NBA MVP odds will be affected as a result of the Lakers winning the tourney, there are some futures markets that I think could see an impact. I mean, just take a look at most futures boards right now: They’re flooded with Lakers players at the top.

Let’s take a closer look at three futures markets where I think success in the NBA In-Season Tournament could help these players/coaches’ NBA odds come April when it’s time to vote.

Clutch Player of the Year Award: LeBron James

LeBron James was named MVP of the first-ever In-Season Tournament, and while I don’t think this will help him win the NBA MVP award, I do think it could enhance his narrative for the Clutch Player of the Year odds.

James is statistically too far behind other players in the running for the NBA MVP, such as Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Joel Embiid, making it unlikely for him to have a chance at the NBA MVP. However, when talking about the Clutch Player of the Year, which is arguably more narrative-based, the Los Angeles Lakers’ tournament win could help him secure some votes in this market.

Not only is this market more narrative-driven than some of the other awards like NBA MVP, but James is currently in the Top 5 in clutch points, with 51 for the season. This is the statistical category that De’Aaron Fox led last season when he won the first-ever Clutch Player of the Year award. So, James has a statistical basis to be considered for this award.

If James ends the season with a similar number of clutch points as Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry, who's to say his tournament MVP doesn't help him gather more votes for this award? I mean, what’s more clutch than leading your team to a perfect 7-0 record throughout the NBA In-Season Tournament and winning three consecutive single-elimination games?

Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis 

Anthony Davis is among the league leaders in the NBA in rebounds per game (12.7) and blocks per game (2.7), which is why you will find him near the top of the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds. Davis is available at +450 at DraftKings, the second-shortest odds on the board, with only Rudy Gobert is trading shorter at +120.

While the championship game of the NBA In-Season Tournament doesn’t technically count toward the regular season statistics-wise, it’s not like anyone is going to forget watching Davis control the paint and disrupt the Pacers offense. Under the bright lights of Las Vegas, with a national television audience, Davis grabbed 20 rebounds and blocked four shots. 

How many times this season will Gobert be able to show a national audience his defensive dominance like Davis did? Not many, because the Minnesota Timberwolves only have 10 nationally-televised games compared to 40 for the Lakers.

We always assume that everyone who has a vote for these awards is watching every single team and player equally, but then every year, we’re reminded that’s not the case when the results become public. Davis will be the beneficiary of the fact that every single person in NBA circles had eyes on the NBA Cup championship game, and it could help him win some votes at the end of the season.

Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle

The NBA Coach of the Year award is usually given to the coach who best outperforms their team's preseason expectations. It’s why Mike Brown was a runaway favorite last season when he led the Sacramento Kings to 48 wins and the third seed in the Western Conference.

As of right now, we have four coaches heavily in the running for this award: Chris Finch, Mark Daigneault, Jamahl Mosley, and Rick Carlisle. If all four coaches can lead their teams to the playoffs, how do you separate the NBA Coach of the Year odds? Carlisle leading the Indiana Pacers to the championship game of the NBA In-Season Tournament feels like an easy tiebreaker to me, and the market agrees. Carlisle has seen his odds shift from +2,000, to +1,200, to +600 to win the NBA Coach of the Year over the last several weeks.

I think Carlisle making it to the championship game of the NBA Cup has now forced Finch, Daigneault, and Mosley into having to accomplish even more with their teams to beat him out for a vote for Coach of the Year. For example, if the narrative of the Orlando Magic making the playoffs was once a strong enough case for Mosley to win the award, I now believe that Carlisle’s successful run with the Pacers means the Magic will need to finish multiple games ahead of the Pacers for Mosley to have a shot.

Another angle to keep an eye on for Carlisle for Coach of the Year is that the Pacers' run in the NBA In-Season Tournament has their front office talking about trading for a win-now player such as Pascal Siakam. So, not only does Carlisle have the championship run narrative behind him, but the front office is more open to improving the roster than ever before.

If the Pacers finish the season with a Top-6 seed in the Eastern Conference, and you combine that with their run to the championship game of the NBA In-Season Tournament, it would be hard not to see Carlisle as the favorite for Coach of the Year in April.

Buyer beware

I wouldn’t necessarily jump at all of these futures bets right now because of the success they had in the NBA In-Season Tournament. Their prices in these markets are shorter than they were weeks ago due to what they accomplished. 

I would just file away in the memory bank that James, Davis, and Carlisle might have a boosted narrative come April because of their achievements in the NBA In-Season Tournament. Keep this in mind as we advance through the regular season and the odds continue to adjust.

If you see me placing a bet on Davis for Defensive Player of the Year in a couple of months or so, that is definitely me acting on what I said here (I would've used Carlisle as an example, but I already have a bet on him at +2,000 thanks to Covers teammate AJ Salah).

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic