The Miami Heat continue to try to climb out of the early-season hole they dug for themselves when they visit the Houston Rockets tonight in an intriguing NBA betting matchup.
The Heat have won four of six games since Jimmy Butler rejoined the lineup but have covered just two of those games, while the Rockets have been struggling to win lately. NBA odds have made Miami a slim road favorite, with a low total set for these two offensively inept clubs.
We break down this matchup and give you our best free NBA picks and predictions for Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets on Thursday, February 11, which tip-off set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets Betting Preview
Injuries
Heat: Maurice Harkless F (Questionable), Goran Dragic PG (Out), Avery Bradley G (Out).
Rockets: John Wall G (Probable), Christian Wood C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 21-5-1 in the Rockets' last 27 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Rockets.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMiami made a couple of trips from -2 to -2.5 at PointsBet USA and as of 4 p.m. ET is back at the opener of -2. The Heat are attracting 70 percent of tickets and 65 percent of money on the point spread. The total opened 218, plunged to 214 and is now 214.5. "Reverse-line move on the total, with heavy action on the Over," PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said. Ticket count is 2/1 and money almost 4/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Miami Heat are finally starting to show signs of life after an injury-plagued start to the season, winning three straight games and going 4-2 SU in their last six, including a home-and-home sweep of the New York Knicks. While this improved play has coincided with the return of Jimmy Butler, it does need to be said that Miami has only covered the spread in two of those games and has not beaten a team above .500 during this stretch. In fact, the Heat are just 1-8 SU (3-6 ATS) against teams currently with a winning record this season.
The good news for the Heat, however, is that they're facing a Houston Rockets team tonight that A) does not have a winning record and B) is currently mired in an ugly stretch of basketball.
Houston is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games, with its last two losses coming by 29 and 25 points, respectively. The biggest culprit to Houston's plight? Terrible, terrible 3-point shooting. The Rockets are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc this season as a team – eighth-worst in the league – but in their last four losses, they've been firing at a 28.7 percent clip (50 for 174).
Compounding that poor shooting has been an inability to gather rebounds, as with breakout big man Christian Wood sidelined the past three games (and out tonight), Houston has been beaten on the glass 150-122.
This is just the second home game for Houston in its last eight games, but it isn't exactly a safe haven as the Rockets are 3-7 ATS on their home court this year. While Miami is by no means a perfect team, they are improving and have shown they can beat lower-end teams right now—and Houston is playing like a lower-end team. Give me the Heat with the points.
PREDICTION: Miami -2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
One of Miami's calling cards has been tenacious defense, as it gives up the seventh-fewest points per game this season and holds foes to just 44.7 percent shooting from the field (fifth-best mark in the NBA). The Heat really stepped up lately, however, allowing opponents to top 110 points just once in their last nine games.
Houston sits ninth in points allowed on the year and yielded just 104.4 points per game over a 10-game stretch prior to its two most recent ugly defeats, where it gave up a combined 249 points.
Both teams also struggle to score, as Miami is 27th in scoring and Houston is 23rd, plus the Under has hit in four of the Heat's last six games and four of Houston's last five contests. Since Butler returned, Miami is averaging 107.8 points in regulation, while the Rockets have scored more than 106 points once in their last five—including two sub-100-point efforts.
It's a low total for this game, but these teams really struggle to score—as evidenced by a sharp drop in the O/U to 216. We're still backing the Under, but grab it now before it drops any further.
PREDICTION: Under 216 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
We discussed earlier how the Rockets have been outrebounded since Wood went down, as their only true remaining big man is former All-Star DeMarcus Cousins. At first glance you'd think Boogie would have a plum matchup against a Miami team that is dead last in the NBA in overall rebounds per game, but looking at rebounding rate paints a different picture.
Miami grabs 48.7 percent of all available rebounds this season, a number that's just 22nd in the Association but is still better than Houston's 27th-ranked 48.2 percent mark. Over each team's last three games, the Heat have actually improved to 49.7 percent, while the Rockets are down to an NBA-worst 45.1 percent.
Cousins' rebounding total for tonight is 8.5, a threshold he's topped just twice in his last eight games. With recent numbers suggesting Houston will struggle to grab what rebounds will be available, going Under on Boogie's boards total is too good to pass up...especially at plus money.
PREDICTION: DeMarcus Cousins Under 8.5 rebounds (+104)
Heat vs Rockets Betting Card
- Miami -2 (-110)
- Under 216 (-110)
- DeMarcus Cousins Under 8.5 rebounds (+104)
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