Heat vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Dallas in for a Rude Awakening

The NBA betting slate for Tuesday night isn't exactly jam-packed, but one matchup offers plenty of value when the Miami Heat visit the Dallas Mavericks. 

Miami has looked very thorough early on this season, while the jury is still very much out on the Mavs, who will be provided with a serious test tonight. 

Find out who to back in this old Finals rematch as we break down our Heat vs. Mavericks picks for November 2.

Heat vs Mavericks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Miami opened as a 1.5-point favorite, being bet up to -2 at most books, while the total hit the books at 215 and has steadily dropped to 212.5, or even as low as 211 at some shops. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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Heat vs Mavericks predictions

• Miami -2 (-110)
• Under 212.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Miami -2 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/2/2021 at 8:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Heat vs Mavericks game info

• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Tuesday, November 2, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Heat vs Mavericks betting preview

Injuries

Heat: Bam Adebayo C (Questionable), Victor Oladipo SG (Out)
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber F/C (Questionable), Kristaps Porzingis C (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 4-1 to the Under in their last five. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Mavericks.

Heat vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This spread looks a bit squirrely, but it's pretty tough to justify backing the Mavs in this spot. 

For starters, the Heat are 5-1, including wins over the Grizzlies, Hornets, Bucks, and Nets. They've played one of the toughest schedules in the NBA thus far and don't look the slightest bit shaken by it. Dallas sits at 4-2 on the season but those wins have come over the Kings, Spurs, Rockets, and Raptors — not exactly a murderer's row.

As such, despite their record, the Mavs own a -6.04 adjusted net rating, good for 26th in the NBA. Conversely, Miami is a ludicrous 17.98 — by far the best in the league. 

The Heat play a stifling brand of defense, trotting out apex defenders at multiple positions in a switch-heavy scheme that seals off the paint. Miami also leads the league in defensive rating and can blanket Dallas phenom Luka Doncic with All-D Second Teamer Jimmy Butler, who's dialed in and playing some of the best basketball of his life right now. 

The one factor giving us even the slightest bit of pause backing the Heat is the possible absence of All-Star center Bam Adebayo, who's questionable with a bruised knee. Adebayo's an undeniable two-way force but he was also out for Miami's 129-103 drubbing of the otherwise-hot Grizzlies — they're just that good right now.

Kristaps Porzingis is also, somewhat obviously, dealing with another injury. He's been absolutely terrible this season and some rest might actually do the Mavs some good, but there's no question their ceiling's lower in a vacuum without him.

Overall, we expect the Heat to win this game rather easily at their current clip, so getting a spread this thin is a layup. Hammer it accordingly. 

Prediction: Miami -2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Here's a fun stat: The Grizzlies scored 103 points on Miami in their loss Saturday night. It was the first time all season an opponent had cracked 100 points against the Heat, who have hit the Under in four of their past five games. 

Not to be outdone, Dallas is a flawless 0-6 O/U so far this season, one of several teams contributing to a violent rash of Unders that have been one the NBA's bigger betting stories so far in 2021-22. 

With this total plummeting since opening, bettors clearly don't think the books have hedged enough, and we're inclined to agree, so shop around for this prop, but make haste in betting it. 

Dallas sits 28th in the NBA in scoring, going up against the league's best defensive team — it's entirely likely they don't even crack triple digits. Both sides have been total Under-magnets this season, and Miami's 129-point outburst against Memphis — in which they shot a ridiculous and unsustainable 21 for 37 from 3-point range — is bloating their scoring average.

If Jason Kidd knows what's best for him (and let's be honest, he probably doesn't) he'll try and slow this game down, but even if the Heat keep things up-tempo, Dallas will have a tough time doing its part here. 

Prediction: Under 212.5 (-110)

Best bet

Dallas just has no business being in this range against a team that looks as good as Miami right now. 

Even if Bam sits, the Mavs could be without two of their top bigs, and overall, are the far-shallower team. Butler's one of the few players in the league who can give Doncic legitimate headaches, and the other Mavs have just been entirely too inconsistent to inspire confidence against an average defense, let alone the best in the NBA. 

The Heat aren't as deep as years past, but it doesn't seem to be bothering them. Tyler Herro appears to be making a serious leap, P.J. Tucker has been a great defensive cog, and Miami's dominating despite Kyle Lowry averaging just 8.4 ppg so far. 

It's going to take a good team with a smart coach and a mismatch to flex to rattle Miami at this point, and the Mavs aren't any of those three things right now. 

Miami's five wins this season have come by an average of 22.6 points, against teams that, in aggregate, are far superior to Dallas. Spotting two points here is far too few. 

Pick: Miami -2 (-110)

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