Heat vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Barnes Heats Up From Beyond the Arc

The Sacramento Kings are playing the second half of a back-to-back, while the Heat have had two days off to prepare for tonight's contest. Will rest win out, or will the Kings' offense stay hot against an inferior opponent? Read on to find out!

Feb 26, 2024 • 19:53 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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How much should we worry about back-to-backs the week after all of the NBA got a break? For that matter, only one Sacramento Kings player was even invited to the All-Star festivities, and Keegan Murray should not be too worn out from the Rising Stars Game.

Factoring in how much the Kings being on the second half of a back-to-back should change tonight’s NBA odds is just one step in deciding whether or not to doubt the Miami Heat. Jimmy Butler is back in the lineup; does that give Miami enough hope to capitalize on this schedule advantage?

Doubting Butler and his defensive impact influences our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Heat vs the Kings on Monday, February 26. 

Heat vs Kings odds

Heat vs Kings predictions

Sure, the Miami Heat have beaten the spread in six straight games and found the Under in the last five, but three of those were without Jimmy Butler and a fourth was in the game returning from the All-Star Break, its own chance of high variance. An unpopular claim backed up by the numbers: Miami is better without Butler in the lineup. They own a -0.3 net rating with Butler this season compared to a +1.9 net rating in 18 games without him.

It is quite possible Butler’s title window has closed, now 34 and his game based on athleticism and intensity not one likely to age well.

Butler missed just three games to bereavement leave, so a 17-game sample size since Feb. 15 — a date picked to create effectively a month of games, discounting the week off for the All-Star Break — warrants notice. And of late, the Heat have doubled down on encouraging 3-pointer attempts.

Miami ranks No. 3 in that span by forcing 43.5 percent of field-goal attempts to come from beyond the arc. Simply having Bam Adebayo is a step toward that emphasis.

But too many of those looks are quality, with opponents hitting 36.2 percent of their threes against the Heat, which puts them at No. 11 in the NBA.

Few teams are as designed to take advantage of that defensive philosophy as the Sacramento Kings are, No. 7 in this stretch in both 3-pointers attempted per game and rate of 3-point attempts. Sacramento’s shooting percentage from deep is not stellar, hence the Kings standing just No. 5 in the Western Conference, but making 37.5 percent of their 3s tonight would be enough to cruise past Miami, given how many looks the Heat will allow.

A team total of 116.5 may seem lofty, but when chipping away at it three points at a time, Sacramento shouldn’t have trouble clearing it.

My best bet: Kings team total Over 116.5 (-102 at FanDuel)

Heat vs Kings same-game parlay

Kings team total Over 116.5

Harrison Barnes Over 2.5 made threes

Domantas Sabonis Over 9.5 assists

Harrison Barnes has averaged 2.4 threes in the last 17 games, the aforementioned equivalent to a month of action. More pertinently, he has hit three or more in seven of those 17 games.

With Miami encouraging looks from beyond the arc, Barnes should get plenty of shots from deep. He has made 40.2 percent of his threes in this stretch, so Barnes should certainly convert enough of those looks.

And if Sacramento is making shots from deep, betting on the Kings’ best passer, Domantas Sabonis to top his assists prop makes too much sense not to do.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Heat vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

The Kings opened on Sunday evening as 7.5-point favorites, before they even faced and trounced the Clippers last night. Should that 16-point win have directly influenced this line? In a word, no.

No single game in the NBA should change perceptions of the next.

But one can wonder if this back-to-back will slow Sacramento as much as the usual back-to-back. The Kings may not be perfectly fresh, but they are nowhere near as weary as they will be in just a week.

Anyway, this spread dropped to -6.5 late Monday morning before then returning to -7.5.

The total opened at 226.5 or 227 before falling to 225 first thing on Monday morning, perhaps a reflection of the usual back-to-back worries. But given how Miami’s defensive rating is 2.8 points worse with Butler in the lineup, this line certainly seems to have moved in the wrong direction.

Heat vs Kings betting trend to know

The Kings cashed seven straight Overs before their final game before the All-Star Break, part of eight of their last 10 games going to the Over. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Kings.

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Heat vs Kings game info

Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Date: Monday, February 26, 2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSCA, Bally Sports Sun

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