The Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets clash in a high-stakes NBA Play-In matchup on April 14, and our NBA player prop projections are highlighting key betting edges.
With everything on the line in this win-or-go-home spot, our model is targeting usage, minutes, and matchup data to deliver the best Heat vs. Hornets predictions and NBA picks on the board.
Heat vs Hornets computer picks for April 14
 Heat |
 Hornets |
|---|---|
| Herro u21.5 points -115 |
Knueppel o5.5 rebounds +120 |
| Larsson o9.5 points +101 |
Miller o3.5 assists +130 |
| Mitchell u5.5 assists -155 |
Ball o5.5 rebounds +121 |
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Heat computer picks
Tyler Herro Under 21. points (-115)
Projection: 18.8 points
Tyler Herro’s scoring ceiling looks inflated for a Play-In environment. With the Miami Heat likely leaning on half-court execution and spreading usage across multiple creators, this sets up as a more balanced offensive night.
Add in the pressure of a win-or-go-home game, where efficiency matters more than volume, and our model sees Herro falling short of this number.
Pelle Larsson Over 9.5 points (+101)
Projection: 11.1 points
Pelle Larsson is quietly trending toward a larger role, and that’s not fully priced into this line. His minutes and shot opportunities have been ticking up, and in a tighter rotation spot, he projects to benefit from secondary scoring chances.
At plus money, this is a clear value gap between the projection and the market.
Davion Mitchell Under 5.5 assists (-155)
Projection: 5.1 assists
Davion Mitchell’s assist line is being propped up by recent usage, but this matchup doesn’t set up cleanly for playmaking volume. In a slower, more controlled Play-In game, assist opportunities tend to dip, especially for secondary ball-handlers.
Our model has Mitchell finishing just below this number, making the juice worth laying.
Hornets computer picks
Kon Knueppel Over 5.5 rebounds (+120)
Projection: 6.4 rebounds
Kon Knueppel’s rebounding role is stronger than the market suggests. With the Charlotte Hornets likely needing contributions across the board, he projects to stay active on the glass, especially in a game where missed shots should be plentiful.
Plus money on a projection edge like this is hard to ignore.
Brandon Miller Over 3.5 assists (+130)
Projection: 4.1 assists
Brandon Miller’s evolution as a secondary creator is showing up in the data. With defensive attention shifting toward primary scorers, he’s finding more playmaking opportunities, and this line hasn’t caught up yet.
In a high-leverage game where the ball moves more deliberately, Miller’s assist upside stands out at this price.
LaMelo Ball Over 5.5 rebounds (+121)
Projection: 6.2 rebounds
LaMelo Ball’s rebounding is often overlooked, but this is a strong spot for him to clear this number. In a competitive, high-minute environment, he’s expected to be heavily involved in all phases, including crashing the glass.
With pace variability and long rebounds in play, the Over offers sneaky value.
How to watch Heat vs Hornets tonight
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, April 14, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Not intended for use in MA.
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