The NBA betting board has four games on tap for Sunday, headlined by a battle between the Atlanta Hawks and the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are in sixth place in the Western Conference standings with a 27-18 record while the Hawks are in sixth place in the East at 23-22.
Both teams made a splash at the trade deadline and while Lou Williams won’t suit up for Atlanta tonight, Denver’s latest acquisition – Aaron Gordon – will take to the floor. Here are our best free Hawks vs. Nuggets picks and predictions for Sunday, March 28, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
Hawks: De'Andre Hunter F (Questionable), Lou Williams G (Out), Kris Dunn PG (Out), Cam Reddish SF (Out).
Nuggets: Monte Morris G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Nuggets.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis number hasn't budged off Denver -4.5 since FanDuel posted the game late Saturday night. As of 7 p.m. ET, the Nuggets are attracting 73 percent of tickets and 72 percent of money on the point spread. The total opened at 227, tumbled to 221.5 and is now 222, even though ticket count and money are both in the 4/1 range on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The Hawks are coming off a 124-108 win over the Warriors on Friday night and are 2-2 SU and ATS over their last four games as they play on a Western Conference road trip. The Nuggets are also fresh off a win on Friday and are also 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four.
Atlanta is led by point guard Trae Young, who leads the team with 25.7 points per game while ranking third in the NBA with 9.5 assists per game. Young is surrounded by plenty of talent, including power forward John Collins and outside shooters like Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Kevin Huerter.
However, the most important Hawks player in this contest might be big man Clint Capela, who will match up against Denver's MVP candidate Nikola Jokic. Jokic averages 27.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game, and while nobody can really shut him down, Capela has done a good job at guarding him over the years.
As a matter of fact, Jokic was limited to 15 points on 5-of-15 shooting when these teams met up last month in a 123-115 win for the Hawks. Although Atlanta has a pair of recent losses, it has been rolling this month, going 9-2 SU and covering the spread in six of its last eight contests.
Meanwhile, as strong as the Nuggets have been, oddsmakers might be overestimating their home-court advantage. Denver is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite and now faces a Hawks team that shoots just as well on the road as they do at home. Back Atlanta on the spread.
PREDICTION: Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Hawks were an Over machine a year ago, with their fast pace and brutal defense, but they've been playing at a far tighter tempo this season. Atlanta is actually tied with Denver for the sixth-fewest possessions per game in the league with 101.3, and both teams have lowered that number below 98 over their last three games.
Both teams are also very close when it comes to scoring defense, with the Hawks ninth in the league by limiting foes to 110.6 points per game and the Nuggets 10th by allowing 110.9 ppg.
The Hawks are fresh off a 124-point performance against the Warriors but prior to that contest had averaged just 105.7 ppg over their previous three games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have been held to 110.5 ppg over their last four contests. Back the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 224 (-110)
Player prop pick
We mentioned that Capela will give Jokic a tough battle tonight but that also means Capela might not have his usual success since he'll be up against an elite big man. The Hawks center is leading the NBA with 14.3 rebounds per game and has been among the league's best rebounders for a few years now, but he usually isn't quite as dominant on the glass when he has to fight the Joker.
In the last eight meetings between these centers, going back to Capela's time in Houston, Capela has been held to 12 rebounds or fewer on six occasions. The Nuggets also allow opposing centers to average just 13 rebounds per 48 minutes, the lowest number in the league. With Capela's rebounding total set at 13.5, take the Under.
PREDICTION: Clint Capela rebounds Under 13.5 (-120)
Hawks vs Nuggets betting card
- Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
- Under 224 (-110)
- Clint Capela rebounds Under 13.5 (-120)
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