Two of the NBA's most pleasant surprises collide Sunday as the Phoenix Suns visit the Charlotte Hornets.
The Hornets have kept afloat without LaMelo Ball, going 3-0 since a wrist injury sidelined their star rookie. Meanwhile, all Phoenix has done is cruise to an NBA-best 30-14 ATS mark, while sitting second overall in the West.
Which of these two will get the better of their NBA betting matchup? Find out with our free picks and predictions for Suns vs. Hornets on March 28.
Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets betting preview
Injuries
Suns: No injuries to report.
Hornets: LaMelo Ball PG (Out), Brad Wanamaker PG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Suns are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Hornets.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhoenix bounced between -6.5 and -6 a couple of times at DraftKings and is at the opener of -6.5 as of noon ET today. The Suns are attracting 68 percent of spread tickets and 71 percent of spread dollars. The total fell from 220.5 to 219.5, then rebounded to 221, with 77 percent of tickets on the Over, but money is running almost dead even.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The Phoenix Suns have kept up their fine form since returning from the All-Star break. Since the second half of the season began, Phoenix is 7-3 SU and ATS, identical just like its season-long records of 30-14 SU and ATS. With instant offense in Devin Booker and several high-level defenders, such as Mikal Bridges, the Suns are third in net rating on the year and one of three teams in the NBA to be in the Top-8 in both offensive and defensive rating.
While we know who the Suns are by this point in the season, Charlotte is less clear after seeing rookie phenom LaMelo Ball go down with a wrist injury. Ball's elite playmaking changes any team he is in and so, his absence will similarly change the Hornets. In their three games without Ball, the Hornets are 3-0 SU and ATS, earning impressive wins over the Heat and Spurs while crushing the lowly Rockets.
Charlotte's performances without Ball thus far have been impressive, but it's simply running into a buzzsaw here. The Suns are one of the NBA's most complete teams and they rarely suffer bad losses. Expect them to take care of business here.
PREDICTION: Suns -7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
For as surprising as it has been to see the Hornets go undefeated in Ball's absence, it has been less surprising to see a 1-2 O/U mark during that stretch. The team's leader in assists and third in scoring, Ball was at the heart of their offense as a playmaker and was a reliable presence off-ball as a shooter and cutter. Their offense should continue to suffer without Ball.
With Chris Paul, Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges playing the second, third and fifth-most minutes per game for the Suns this season, it's no surprise they have consistently locked teams up. At 21-23 O/U on the season, the Suns would be more consistently rewarding Under bettors if it was not for their own efficient offense. However, with the Hornets missing Ball, we don't trust them to do enough to push the total Over against the Suns. Add in that it's an early tip on a Sunday and we are comfortably siding with the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 221 (-110)
Player prop pick
It won't be a surprise to see the production of Hornets players dip with Ball out — missing your genius-level passer teammate will have that impact. Early returns without Ball have been especially worrisome for Gordon Hayward, who has averaged 15.3 points in the three games since the rookie's injury — down from his season average of 19.9 and salvaged only by a 27-point night against the Spurs preceding 11- and 8-point duds.
Life without Ball won't get any easier for Hayward in the short-term, with a matchup against a future perennial All-Defense selection in Bridges up next. Expect Hayward's mini-slump to extend.
PREDICTION: Gordon Hayward Under 18.5 Points (-120)
Suns vs Hornets betting card
- Suns -7 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Gordon Hayward Under 18.5 Points (-120)
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