There is no need to wait for Game 1 of the NBA Finals to make some bets on the final handful of games of the NBA season.
The Indiana Pacers are hefty underdogs in these Finals, understandably so given the Oklahoma City Thunder’s continued dominance. But a savvy eye for NBA picks sees value in a few Pacers prop bets for this series as a whole.
Three NBA Finals bets to make before Game 1
Myles Turner More 3-Pointers Than Jalen Williams (-130 at DraftKings)
On the surface, it is foolish to pay juice on Myles Turner hitting more 3-pointers in the Finals than Jalen Williams does. Williams has hit 27 triples in 16 postseason games, two more than Turner has in the same number of games.
But look past the surface and look to the defenses.
Oklahoma City gave up corner 3-point looks more often than anyone else this season. That has continued this postseason, as opponents have taken 44.4% of their shots from deep, making 33.1% of them. That low success rate is why the Thunder force so many long-range attempts.
It works as a defensive strategy, clearly. But still, OKC opponents get to shoot.
Meanwhile, Indiana ranked No. 3 in opponent 3-point attempt rate from the All-Star Break to the end of the regular season at 39% and No. 4 in opposing 3-point percentage in that stretch at an impressive 34.5%. Those trends have largely held up this postseason, with opponents taking 3s on just 40.8% of their shots and making only 33.5% of those.
So in a series when both teams should struggle shooting, there is value in betting on these head-to-head matchups of comparable players with an eye on the offense that will be forced to shoot from deep more often.
Turner is not an established corner shooter, but he hit 50% of his looks there this season. As the Thunder emphasize those shots, Turner will hit them, and that will give him an edge over Williams against the Pacers’ stifling perimeter defense.
Most Made 3-Pointers: Aaron Nesmith (+450 at bet365) and Tyrese Haliburton (+125 at FanDuel)
There is no need to choose between yours truly and Jon Metler. If you shop around, you can take both bets and be in an enviable position.
Counterpoint: You can find Nesmith north of +450 elsewhere, and he is shooting significantly better than Haliburton these days.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) June 2, 2025
Will have nearly a week off to better his ankle ... https://t.co/bdQIOGAsqj
This is rather logically a continuation of the above head-to-head bet on Myles Turner. In every way you can, bet on Indiana to shoot and make more 3s than Oklahoma City does. Again, this is less a commentary on the offenses and more of one on the defensive designs.
But it is also a bet on the offenses. Consider the next players available to lead in 3-pointers this series. Looking at the most widely available books and noting the best numbers available: Lu Dort at +600 (DraftKings), Myles Turner at +1100 (DraftKings), Jalen Williams at +1100 (DraftKings) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +1600 (bet365).
Dort had a solid season from deep, hitting 41.2% of his 5.8 attempts per game. That has fallen apart this postseason, hitting 30.4% of his 6.4 attempts per game. Thus, he has hit just 31 in 16 games, a number that should fall further against the Pacers’ perimeter defense.
For context: Tyrese Haliburton has hit 38 triples this postseason, while Aaron Nesmith has nailed 43. Haliburton has the edge in the odds only because of Nesmith’s sprained ankle.
Continue down the list. Turner’s 25 exceed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 24, but should either of them or Williams (27) be considered as threats? SGA and Williams, in particular, will also be shooting against that Indiana perimeter defense.
Bet the two frontrunners, both at plus odds, and be assured a winning bet.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 25+ in every game (-115 at FanDuel)
The MVP has fallen short of 25 points in exactly three games this postseason, once each round. He scored only 15 in 23 minutes in a 51-point win to open the playoffs. He was held to 18 in an overtime loss at Denver. And then he scored a mere 14 in a 42-point blowout loss at Minnesota, playing only 27 minutes.
Everyone should hope the Finals are free of any such blowouts. For that matter, no lead is big enough around the Pacers, something the Thunder will certainly be keenly aware of.
But more pertinently, Indiana’s defensive focus hardly pertains to SGA, hence why his odds to lead the NBA Finals in 3-pointers are so lofty. Gilgeous-Alexander is happy to have his 3-pointer denied. He will take that closeout and capitalize on the poor defensive position, be it by getting to the midrange or getting to the free-throw line.
Then again, free throws are effectively a form of the midrange, aren’t they?
The Pacers should not abandon what propelled them this far, but that defensive approach does play right into SGA’s offensive approach, something that could become a problem for Indiana head coach Rick Carlisle.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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