Denver Nuggets Odds: Defending Champs Are Being Shockingly Undervalued

Typically, even the best teams don’t win universal respect from media, fans, and oddsmakers until they prove they can do it in the playoffs. But in the case of the Denver Nuggets, not even an unimpeachable 16-4 run through the postseason seems to have earned the Nuggets the benefit of the doubt in the NBA odds.

There are numerous opportunities for bettors who want to back the defending champs this year at longer than expected odds. Here are three of the best free NBA future picks for the Nuggets heading into the 2023-24 season.

Nuggets Over 52.5 wins 

Winning a title might not have changed broad perceptions of the Denver Nuggets, at least not according to oddsmakers, but it’s certain to have fundamentally modified them as a team.

Once a team wins their first title, everything changes. Past nerves and expectations fall away. Proven chemistry is carved in stone. And a renewed hunger to win at the highest level can be a unifying force that smooths over anyone straying from the team concept.

The only worry is if egos get in the way, but given the personalities of the stars of this team, that seems an unlikely concern. While some squads have struggled following their championship seasons, that’s often because they were older than this Nuggets team, or they faced a more grueling playoff journey the prior year. The Nuggets more or less cruised to the championship last season, and their star players chose rest and recovery over World Cup competition.

There’s little worry of complacency, with so many potential rivals in both conferences having made splashy additions over the offseason in an effort to level the playing field.

And no doubt they heard from skeptics who argued they didn’t have a difficult road to the championship last season. Just like the 73-win Golden State Warriors, they’ll be looking to quiet those skeptical voices forever with a strong follow-up performance.

While some have criticized the Nuggets' ability to continue at their previous level due to the departures of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, those losses are being overblown. The starting lineup for the Nuggets remains unchanged, and the bench groups for Denver last season were a statistical disaster. They can hardly be worse in that department, and there’s good reason to believe that the starters can be even better. 

The Nuggets won 53 games all while working Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray back from serious injuries. They also coasted down the stretch (9-10 in their last 19 games) because nobody was remotely close to catching them in their Conference. the Phoenix Suns are positioned to at least make things interesting at the top of the West this season, so the Nuggets should remain engaged throughout. 

As a whole, Denver is well put-together and they have the league’s most durable superstar in Nikola Jokic, which is why I’m banking on this Over.

Nuggets Futures Bet: Nuggets Over 52.5 wins (+102 at FanDuel)

Nikola Jokic to win NBA MVP 

If you buy that the Nuggets will be one of the Top 3 overall seeds in the league, the chances that Nikola Jokic captures his third NBA MVP in four seasons are extremely high.

In terms of sheer value to likelihood, this is the best Nuggets bet on the board. Not only has Jokic won the award two out of the last three seasons, but his coronation as the NBA’s best player following the playoffs left many voters with serious regret having denied him his third straight trophy.

Whatever voters may say, past season performance — particularly playoff performance — has a powerful influence on next year’s awards race. The primary reason that Jokic failed to win a third straight last year was that some misguided voters were skittish about making Jokic one of a handful of three straight NBA MVP odds winners without first seeing him do it in the playoffs. 

It will be hard to deny Jokic a third trophy given his continued all-time production, track record of rarely missing time, and his undeniability as the NBA’s best player.

To my mind, Giannis is the biggest threat to compete with Jokic, but a few things work against him. MVPs are graded on a scale, so preseason expectations are important. The Milwaukee Bucks won 58 games last season and added Damian Lillard. 

It won’t be fair, but Giannis will need to likely improve on that record in order to go toe-to-toe with Jokic, and I don’t see that happening. Even if the Nuggets win fewer games than the Bucks, this feels like Jokic’s trophy to lose.

Nuggets Futures Bet: Nikola Jokic to win NBA MVP (+450 at DraftKings)

Jamal Murray to win Most Improved Player 

With those two out of the way, now we get to the real fun. 

The best part of futures betting is getting in early on a long shot ticket and watching it slowly carve a path toward probability throughout the regular season. So for my third Nuggets futures prop, I’m taking Jamal Murray to win Most Improved Player at +7,500.

Murray stamped himself as one of the league’s best players last season with his performance in the playoffs. Jamal’s leap came quietly in fits and starts as he worked his way back from a devastating ACL injury, but it was clear how much he had improved when looking at the numbers. 

Murray’s assist percentage made a huge jump, as did his usage, and then he showcased it all at an elite level with a playoff run for the ages. Murray finished the playoffs averaging 26.1 points to go with 7.1 assists on just a notch below 60% true shooting. 

Before you worry that Murray is already too good or too proven to win the Most Improved Player odds race, examine recent history. That same argument did nothing to slow down the campaign for Ja Morant, who won two years ago. 

If not for the emergence of Lauri Markkanen last season, then Murray’s Team Canada teammate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would have won with the exact kind of argument that I believe Murray is a good bet to. Which is to say, a player everyone agrees is good putting it all together for a full season for the first time at an All-NBA level.

Murray has never made an All-Star game nor an All-NBA team in his career, and I’m banking on him doing both this season as he enters his prime at 26 years old. If he’s the only player to make the jump from never making an All-Star team to being a consensus All-NBA player, it will be difficult for voters not to reward his improvement.

Some oddsmakers have this number as low as +4,000, so get in quickly before the games begin to count.

Nuggets Futures Bet: Jamal Murray to win Most Improved Player (+7,500 at FanDuel)

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