We have a rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals as Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors host Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics at Chase Center tonight. You know what's better than watching a rematch between the Warriors and Celtics? Finding a probability gap in the NBA odds for a player prop from this game.
The Warriors might have a very similar roster to the one that helped them defeat the Celtics in 2022, but the results have been very different this season. The Celtics are 20-5 and in first place in the Eastern Conference while the Golden State Warriors are 12-14 and not even in the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference.
The good news for the Warriors is that, following the suspension of Draymond Green, they made some adjustments to their starting lineup, and it has already paid dividends with wins over the Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers.
With the Celtics trading as a 5.5-point road favorite tonight, find out why I'm betting on a Jaylen Brown player prop and more in our free NBA picks for Celtics vs. Warriors on Tuesday, December 19.
Celtics vs Warriors odds
Celtics vs Warriors predictions
If you recall the 2022 NBA Finals, Stephen Curry was the NBA Finals MVP and hit the Boston Celtics with the 'night night' celebration, but Curry wasn't the only Golden State Warriors player who gave Boston fits. Andrew Wiggins made a major impact on the series for the Warriors against the Celtics, averaging 18.3 points per game and 8.8 rebounds per game.
How things have changed for Wiggins since this series. Following Draymond Green's suspension, the Warriors also decided to send Wiggins to the bench and start Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski instead.
This creates an interesting situation against the Celtics because Wiggins has historically been their primary defender on Jayson Tatum. This means that we will probably see the 21-year-old Kuminga guarding Tatum tonight. The Warriors won't just be leaving Kuminga on an island guarding Tatum, though. They will have to send help.
The first thought would be an Over for Tatum's assist prop, but I'm taking this angle a different way because we have a larger probability gap by going Under on Jaylen Brown. If Tatum is going to be the player getting double-teamed, he should be more of a facilitator, which means we could see Brown as more of a scorer as they attempt to guard him one-on-one.
Brown already thinks more score than pass, so if the Dubs aren't sending extra defense his way, why would he be passing up his shot to set up his teammates?
Brown is projected to have 3.6 assists, allowing us to price the Under 3.5 at -112. This bet is also a rogue price alert, as only DraftKings is hanging a massive plus-money price on the Under that we can use to create an even bigger edge.
My best bet: Jaylen Brown Under 3.5 assists (+130 at DraftKings)
Celtics vs Warriors same-game parlay
Jaylen Brown Under 3.5 assists
Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 points
Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 assists
Our best bet is Brown Under 3.5 assists, and I broke down in that section why I thought this was a solid bet from a basketball perspective. The other legs of this parlay are just correlated plays based on that breakdown.
Tatum will have many more assist opportunities than normal just because he will be matching up against Kuminga, and Golden State will have to send help defense his way.
I also see Brown as more of a scorer as he should match up with Podziemski and be hunting his shot against the rookie. I don't necessarily anticipate Brown having a bad game by any means when going Under on his assists prop. I just think his offensive impact will be in points rather than dimes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Celtics vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
The Celtics opened as a 5.5-point favorite at FanDuel, and the line has been bouncing back and forth between Celtics -5.5 and Celtics -5. We are seeing some Celtics -6 also out there, so make sure you shop around for the best price before placing a bet on the spread.
The total opened at 231.5 at DraftKings, and we have seen momentum toward the Over, with it now trading at 233 at DraftKings. Again, shop around for this line as well, as there is no consensus price since the market hasn't settled on a number. You can find anywhere from 232.5 to 233.5 across a variety of sportsbooks.
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Celtics vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Golden State Warriors have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+9.45 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Warriors.
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Celtics vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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