It feels like the walls are closing in on the Milwaukee Bucks.
They trail the Indiana Pacers 3-1 in their first-round series and Damian Lillard is out long-term with an Achilles injury. My Bucks vs. Pacers predictions are targeting Pascal Siakam as one of the key pieces to ending the series tonight.
I break it all down and bring you my NBA picks for Game 5 of this Eastern Conference quarterfinals on Tuesday, April 29.
Who will win Bucks vs Pacers Game 5?
The Milwaukee Bucks are toast. Not having Damian Lillard is a problem, but not as much as how they have played defense in this series. Milwaukee has no answer for this Indiana Pacers offense, and I don't expect that to change in front of a crazy home crowd at the Fieldhouse. The Pacers win and end the series tonight.
Bucks vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
It could be the end of an era of Milwaukee Bucks basketball.
The Bucks trail the Pacers three games to one and are on the verge of a third straight first-round exit. Lillard has suffered a devastating Achilles injury that could keep him out for all of next year. And while Giannis Antetokounmpo is insanely loyal, the two-time MVP could be more loyal to winning, and the Bucks might not be up to his standards anymore.
The Bucks' lack of depth behind Giannis has been painfully obvious in this series, particularly on the defensive end of the floor.
Milwaukee has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA playoffs at this point, surrendering 117.5 points per game. Indiana has scored at least 117 points in three of the first four games in this series.
To be fair, you have to give the Pacers credit. They have been rolling for a while now, going 13-3 down the stretch heading into this series. Of course, Tyrese Haliburton has been fantastic, but Pascal Siakam's performance really stands out to me.
This is the reason the Pacers traded for Siakam. He is not only extremely talented but also has championship experience. He’s showing both through the first four games of the series, averaging 22.8 points per game on an uber-efficient .650 effective field-goal percentage. He’s hit 24 or more points in three of the four games.
The Bucks don’t have an answer for the Pacers’ balance and it's benefiting Siakam. His point total for Game 5 is sitting at 20.5, a number he's cleared three times in this series.
The Bucks look checked out and Siakam will take advantage.
Bucks vs Pacers same-game parlay
Pascal Siakam 20+ points
Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ points
Pacers Team Total Over 114.5
It would be sad if this was the final time we saw Antetokounmpo in a Milwaukee jersey. But the Bucks have failed to surround him with enough talent since winning their championship a few years ago.
While Milwaukee has struggled in this series, you can’t blame Giannis. The Greek Freak is averaging 33.8 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game during this series. He’s the ultimate competitor and while it may not be enough, he won't go down without a fight, so let’s add him to go for 30+ points for the fourth time in this series.
And let’s round this same-game parlay out with the Pacers to go Over their team total of 114.5. The Pacers have hit 117+ points three times in this series, including in both previous home games.
With the Bucks' lack of effort on the defensive end of the floor in this series, I like the Pacers to eclipse this number once again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bucks vs Pacers odds
Bucks vs Pacers live odds
Bucks vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +7 | Indiana -7
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +230 | Indiana -280
- Over/Under: Over 225 | Under 225
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pacers opened as 7-point home favorites and have seen the early action, moving up to 8-point chalk.
- The Pacers closed Games 1 and 2 as 6-point and 4.5-point home favorites, so considering the Lillard injury, this adjustment makes sense. The Pacers have covered the spread three times in this series.
- The total hit the board at 225 and has come down a few points to sit at 222 as of Monday evening.
- This would be the lowest total of the series to this point. The previous low was 226.5 in Game 4. The Under is 2-2 in this series mostly because the Bucks have scored 103 points or fewer three times and now don't have Lillard.
Bucks vs Pacers trend
The Pacers have covered the 4Q Spread in 36 of their last 51 games for +20.00 Units and a 34% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pacers.
How to watch Bucks vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-Wisconsin, FDSN-Indiana |
Bucks vs Pacers latest injuries
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