Two teams with NBA Finals aspirations square off tonight when Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks visit Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers have won five straight games and are 2.5-point NBA betting favorites at home, while the Bucks have dropped two in a row following an eight-game winning streak.
So, which side should basketball bettors be on in this matchup? Find out in our NBA free picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Clippers on Monday, March 29, with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Bucks: Bobby Portis C (Out), P.J. Tucker PF (Out), Rodions Kurucs SF (Out).
Clippers: Rajon Rondo PG (Out), Patrick Beverley PG (Out), Serge Ibaka C (Out), Jay Scrubb C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as an underdog while the Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Clippers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis game opened pick 'em at FanDuel and moved to Los Angeles -2.5 by midmorning, then ticked to -2 midafternoon and is still there at 7 p.m. ET. Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Clippers. The total moved from 232 to 231 and back to 232, with 59 percent of tickets/66 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Yes, the Bucks have dropped two straight, but you can give them a pass for Saturday’s loss to the Knicks as Giannis, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Donte DiVincenzo all didn’t dress...and all should be back for this matchup.
At 29-16, the Bucks currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference standings, 2.5 games behind the first-place Philadelphia 76ers. The Bucks have relied heavily on their offense this season, leading the NBA in scoring and ranking fifth in offensive rating.
While the Bucks’ offense is humming, the defense has taken a bit of a step back this season. They still rank seventh in defensive rating but are 20th in opponent scoring per game and have been killed on the perimeter, where they sit 21st in opponent 3-point shooting. And there is arguably no better deep-ball shooting team in the NBA than the Clippers.
L.A. sits third in the Western Conference at 31-16, ranks second in the Association in offensive rating and is No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage, hitting a ridiculous 41.6 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc this season.
During this latest streak, the buzz is starting to build around Kawhi and his MVP candidacy. The two-time Finals MVP has played four of the last five games and is averaging 23.8 points on a crazy-good 57.1 percent shooting from the floor while adding 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.3 steals. And Leonard has proven to be a problem for Giannis and the Bucks during his time in Toronto.
On top of that, the Bucks have not played well against tougher competition this season. Not only are they 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs, but they are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games this season when they are less than double-digit chalk.
The Clippers are the more well-rounded team, and they should get the best of Bucks in this one.
PREDICTION: Clippers -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total for this game is what you would expect, considering it features two of the best offenses in the NBA. The Bucks and Clippers are also two of the best Over bets in the Association, with Milwaukee going 27-17-1 to the Over while L.A. is 27-19-1 O/U. But hold your horses before you run to the betting window to hammer the Over.
When the Bucks are 5-point favorites or shorter, their scoring output shrinks to 114.4 points per game, and while that may seem pretty high still, that matters with a total of 231.5. That includes a Feb. 28 meeting against L.A., in which the Bucks won 105-100 in a game that cruised Under the total by 26.5 points.
The Clippers are in a similar situation. When Kawhi plays and the spread is 5-points or closer, the Clippers average 109.4 points per game. These high-profile matchups tend to bring out the intensity in both teams, and in turn, the effort on the defensive end goes up, so, siding with the Under on this big number feels like the right bet.
PREDICTION: Under 231.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
While Kawhi may be getting all the MVP buzz for the Clippers, it’s the play of Paul George that really makes them a dangerous team. George is having the best shooting season of his career, hitting 47.3 percent of his attempts from the floor, which includes 42.6 percent from downtown, and he is averaging 3.4 made threes per game on 7.7 attempts. George is in a bit of a slump right now, but oddsmakers think he’ll bounce back in this matchup against a soft-Milwaukee perimeter D, setting his made threes total at 3.5, and so do we.
PREDICTION: Paul George Over 3.5 Made Threes (-105)
Bucks vs Clippers betting card
- Clippers -2.5 (-110)
- Under 231.5 (-110)
- Paul George Over 3.5 Made Threes (-105)
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