The Chicago Bulls stole a game on the road and are now in the driver's seat as they head home for Games 3 and 4.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks will now be without Khris Middleton for the rest of the first round after sustaining an MCL sprain in Game 2, and will have to find a way to replace his scoring. Can the Bulls pull ahead of the reigning champions, or will Milwaukee grind out a win?
Continue reading for free Bucks vs Bulls NBA picks and predictions for Game 3 on Friday, April 22nd.
Bucks vs Bulls odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Bucks opened as 2-point favorites and have moved a touch-up to -2.5. The total opened at 223.5 and has since moved a point down to 222.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bucks vs Bulls predictions
Predictions made on 4/22/2022 at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the NBA Playoffs, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Place a same-game parlay on any NBA game at DraftKings (until 4/22) and get up to $10 back in free bets if your SGP loses! Claim Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Bucks vs Bulls game info
• Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, April 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Bucks vs Bulls series odds
Bucks: Khris Middleton F (Out), George Hill G (Out).
Bulls: Matt Thomas G (Out).
Bucks vs Bulls betting preview
Key injuries
Bucks: Khris Middleton F (Out), George Hill G (Out).
Bulls: Matt Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Chicago was the third-best Over team at home this year, going 25-16 (61%). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Bulls.
Bucks vs Bulls picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
With the series knotted up at 1-1 and with Khris Middleton out for at least the rest of the first round, there is suddenly a lot of intrigue surrounding the Bucks-Bulls series. And although Middleton was having a down year by his standards (his 37.3% 3P% is a four-year low and four percent lower than last year), he still was averaging 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on the year.
But this is not the first time the Bucks have had to deal with injuries during the postseason. Just last year, Donte Divincenzo, a regular starter for the Bucks, went down in the first round. Then of course there was Giannis Antetokounmpo's knee hyperextension in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, which caused him to miss the rest of that series prior to miraculously returning for the Finals.
Facing adversity is nothing new for the reigning champs, and more likely than not, they will find a solution for this latest challenge. But the question remains as to what exactly that will look like. Does Giannis shoulder the burden and add on to his already sky-high usage? He already ranked third during the regular season in usage rate, trailing only Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid. Or does Jrue Holiday try to channel his hot April, during which he averaged 20.3 points on 39.7% three-point shooting?
| PPG Splits - Middleton | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| L10 with | L10 w/o | Change | |
| G. Antetokounmpo | 34.6 | 26.2 | -8.4 |
| J. Holiday | 18.4 | 21.4 | 3.0 |
| B. Lopez | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.7 |
| B. Portis | 9.7 | 15.8 | 6.1 |
| G. Allen | 9.4 | 17.6 | 8.2 |
| P. Connaughton | 7.8 | 12.5 | 4.7 |
The answer is a bit nuanced. When looking at the last ten games played with and without Middleton, Giannis has surprisingly seen his scoring dip quite a significant amount (-8.2 PPG). However, Giannis does pick up Middleton's involvement as a facilitator, seeing his assists jump from 4.4 to 6.5 per game. And while Holiday sees a small jump during Middleton's absence (+3.0 PPG), it's actually Grayson Allen (+8.2 PPG) and Bobby Portis (+6.1 PPG) who benefit the most.
The Bucks should be able to replicate Middleton's production decently well, but there's another area where misfortune can be swung their way. When looking at the quality of shots each team took in Game 2 and the expected win probability resulting from those shots compared to the actual outcome of the game, Game 2 is seemingly an outlier. Despite the Bulls winning 114-110, the ShotQuality projected score actually had the Bucks winning 121-105.
? SQ UPSET ?
— ShotQuality (@Shot_Quality) April 21, 2022
???? Actual Score: Bulls 114-110 Bucks
???? ShotQuality Score: Bulls 105-121 Bucks
Based on the quality of shots taken:
???? Bulls win 8% of the time
???? Bucks win 92% of the time pic.twitter.com/5vval23H6m
This is actually eerily similar to what was happening to the Bucks in the second round onwards in last year's playoffs, during which they managed to go 1-5 in Games 1 and 2 and 11-2 in Games 3 through 7. As long as they can continue to generate these quality looks, these games and the rest of the series should swing their way.
Prediction: Bucks -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
Milwaukee has played to the Over 23-18 (56.1%) this season and Chicago was the third-best Over team at home this year, going 25-16 (61%).
And when it comes to games without Khris Middleton (not including the regular-season finale in which the Bucks sat everyone), Milwaukee has averaged 123.8 points in its last four - a whopping 8.6 points higher than its 115.2 PPG on the season, the third-highest mark in the NBA.
That includes a 127-106 win over Chicago, the only game of their four in the regular season to go Over the total. However, when contextualizing the four regular-season games within Friday's total of 222.5, all but one went over that mark.
Prediction: Over 222.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Between Middleton's absence, the Bulls tying up the series following Game 2, and the series heading to Chicago for Game 3, bettors everywhere are unshy about backing Chicago. But this is the exact spot in which Milwaukee found themselves multiple times in the playoffs last year, and that postseason ended with them hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy.
It took a 41-point performance from DeMar DeRozan for Chicago to walk away with Game 2, and although DeRozan is a hell of a player, that is not exactly the type of performance you want to have to count on night in and night out to keep you in a series.
And as mentioned before, if Mike Budenholzer and Jrue Holiday can continue to pilot the offense to generate quality looks, the shots should start to fall Milwaukee's way. Don't let all of the noise distract you from how good and experienced this Milwaukee team is.
Pick: Bucks -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Bucks vs. Bulls predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
