76ers vs Pacers Picks and Predictions: Embiid Steamrolls Indiana's Undersized Frontcourt

Even if the 76ers can't cover a lofty 12.5-point spread against the Pacers, and we don't expect them to in our betting picks, Joel Embiid should still have a huge night. The MVP candidate is riding high and we love his points prop tonight in Indianapolis.

Apr 5, 2022 • 12:02 ET • 4 min read
Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Indiana Pacers have been ice cold in recent weeks, but they now host a Philadelphia 76ers team that hasn’t been playing up to expectations. The Sixers are definitely favored to win rather easily, but the Pacers do have some intriguing players who will have something to say about that. 

Will Indiana find a way to keep this game close against Philadelphia? You’ll want to keep reading our Sixers vs. Pistons NBA betting picks and predictions to find out. 

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76ers vs Pacers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Sixers opened as 12.5-point favorites over the Pacers, and it really hasn’t moved much at all by late Monday night. If Malcolm Brogdon is announced as active, the spread could move quite a bit. The total, which opened at 231, can be found between 231 and 232.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

76ers vs Pacers predictions

Predictions made on 4/5/2022 at 1:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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76ers vs Pacers game info

Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Tuesday, April 5, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Indiana, NBC Sports Philadelphia

76ers vs Pacers betting preview

Key injuries

76ers: Jaden Springer G (Questionable).
Pacers: T.J. McConnell G (Questionable), Malcolm Brogdon G (Questionable), Chris Duarte G (Out), T.J. Warren F (Out), Myles Turner C (Out), Ricky Rubio G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Sixers are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight road games. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Pacers.

76ers vs Pacers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

We haven’t seen much from the Sixers recently that suggests they should be double-digit favorites against anyone. Just last week, Philadelphia was a 9.5-point road favorite against the Detroit Pistons and ended up losing that game outright. The team then failed to cover in a road win over a shorthanded Cleveland Cavaliers team on Sunday. Sandwiched in between those performances was a 30-point home win over the Charlotte Hornets, but it’s still hard to trust the Sixers at the moment. They’re just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, and they’ve failed to cover in each of their last three road games. 

The Pacers are riding a seven-game losing streak, but they have covered in two of their last three games. They also have a very dynamic backcourt, which is important when facing a team with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Indiana has a future star in Tyrese Haliburton, who is a threat to score 20 points and also rack up at least 10 assists (he's averaging 17.3 points and 9.8 dimes in 23 games since being traded to Indiana). Haliburton’s just incredibly effective at creating offense with the ball in his hands, and he’s going to be in attack mode early and often.

Meanwhile, Buddy Hield is one of the better 3-point shooters in the league, so he’s definitely capable of getting hot in this game. Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry leads the association in threes by a wide margin with 285. Hield is second on the list at 252 at a 36.7% clip. Hield only hit 3 of 12 from three in his last game against the Pistons, but Detroit features one of the stingier perimeter defenses in the NBA (allowing 32.8% shooting from three). And while the Sixers aren't the worst defensive team beyond the arc, they allow opponents to shoot 36% from deep, 11th highest rate in the league.

The Sixers should ultimately win this game outright, with Joel Embiid's two-way dominance at the center position being the primary catalyst. But the Pacers should be able to hold their own everywhere else. Philadelphia has struggled to find an identity since trading for Harden, and the team’s effort level has been inconsistent. The talent might not be there for Indiana, but the team has guys like Isaiah Jackson and Terry Taylor who are going to work as hard as possible here. That should allow the Pacers to make this respectable. 

Prediction: Pacers +12.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The Under has hit in three of the Sixers' last five games, and a lot of that has to do with the team playing at a pretty slow pace. While Philadelphia might be loaded with offensive talent, the team doesn't seem to like getting up and down the floor in a hurry. Harden is actually a guard who likes to walk it up the court and survey the floor. Philly also plays through a world-class center in Embiid, but running the offense through a post player — elite or otherwise — tends to eat up the shot clock. 

Since acquiring Harden, the Sixers have sped up quite a bit but they're still just 19th in the league in pace over the last 10 games — compared to 26th on the year. Meanwhile, the Pacers are just 13th in the league in pace in that span, so neither one of these teams will really look to push things too much. 

The Under is also 7-1-1 in Philly's last nine games coming off a straight-up win. Additionally, it’s 5-2 in the last seven games Indiana has played after an ATS loss. 

Prediction: Under 232 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Embiid is coming off a 44-point game against the Cavaliers — a Top-6 defense on the season — and he's had at least 37 points in three of his last five games. As the big man continues to make a late push in NBA MVP odds, you can expect him to continue to be in attack mode as a scorer. It’s not completely out of reach at this point, but he’ll need some big games in order to catch up to Nikola Jokic in the mind of the voters. 

This Pacers team might have some feisty players, but it does lack the size you need at the center position to slow Embiid down. Goga Bitadze certainly isn’t up for the challenge, and Jackson is giving up a lot of size to the Philadelphia star. 

Pick: Joel Embiid Over 33.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)

NBA parlays

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