NASCAR YellaWood 500 Predictions, Odds & Race Preview — Talladega Superspeedway

After a disastrous first race of the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8, both Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are looking to bounce back in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday, October 19.

Joining them at the top of the YellaWood 500 odds is Penske teammate Austin Cindric, as is William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports in what's a compact field.

Our YellaWood 500 predictions and free betting picks separate the wheat from the chaff at 'Dega.

Odds to win 2025 YellaWood 500

Driver
Ryan Blaney	+1000
Joey Logano	+1000
Austin Cindric	+1000
William Byron	+1000
Chase Elliott	+1100
Kyle Larson	+1200
Denny Hamlin	+1800
Christopher Bell	+1800
Brad Keselowski	+1800
Tyler Reddick	+2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	+2000
Kyle Busch	+2000
Chase Briscoe	+2200
Ross Chastain	+2200
Bubba Wallace	+2200
Daniel Suarez	+2200
Chris Buescher	+2200
Alex Bowman	+2500
Josh Berry	+2500
Ryan Preece	+3000

Odds as of 10-18.

YellaWood 500 field

Although Talladega is one of the most chaotic circuits in the NASCAR Cup Series, bettors are hitching their wagons to, in order: Penske, Penske, Penske, Hendrick, Hendrick, Hendrick, Gibbs, Gibbs. Rounding out the Top 10 is Brad Keselowski (RFK) and Tyler Reddick (23XI). 

Also at a much shorter price than usual is Ricky Stenhouse Jr., last year's overtime winner. 

There are 40 cars in the field, but only six are listed at triple-digit odds, a nod to just how wide-open superspeedway racing can be.

YellaWood 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10-18.

YellaWood 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Ryan Blaney (+1000)
Ryan Blaney’s last three Talladega finishes read: 20th, 39th, and seventh, respectively. Prior, he had three consecutive Top-2 finishes, including a runner-up in this race in 2022 and a win a year later, his third Talladega victory. 

William Byron (+1000)
William Byron has nine Top-12 finishes in his last 11 Talladega starts, including finishes of seventh, second, seventh, third and third, respectively, in his last five. He also won the last two Daytona 500s.

Chase Elliott (+1100)
Chase Elliott has two trips to victory lane in his last 12 Talladega starts. He also won in Atlanta this summer and has four Top-7 finishes at Talladega in his last seven tries in general. 

YellaWood 500 sleepers

Denny Hamlin (+1800)
He can win at any given time on a superspeedway. Denny Hamlin has seven Top-7 finishes in his last 14 Talladega tries, including a third-place run in the 2023 fall race. 

Christopher Bell (+1800)
Christopher Bell, Hamlin’s teammate, has three Top-10 finishes in 11 Talladega starts. One was a sixth-place finish last fall. Another is a fifth place in October 2021 for two Top-6 results in his last four playoff starts here.

Chase Briscoe (+2200)
Chase Briscoe finished 10th, fourth, 13th, 12th, 30th, and 15th, respectively, in his last six starts here. The JGR driver also qualified on the pole and finished fourth in the Daytona 500.

Erik Jones (+4500)
Erik Jones has seven Top-10 finishes in his last 11 Talladega starts, including four Top-6 results in the last seven. He was fifth in this race last year. 

John Hunter Nemechek (+6500)
Jones’ teammate has two eighth-place finishes in five career Talladega starts. Nemechek finished fifth and 17th in Daytona this season and 10th and 26th in Atlanta. 

YellaWood 500 fades

Austin Cindric (+1000)
Austin Cindric won this spring and has finished ninth, fifth, and 32nd in the fall race. However, at Daytona this year, he finished eighth and 39th, and in Atlanta, he finished 28th and 38th. 

Joey Logano (+1000)
Joey Logano is a three-time Talladega winner, but nine of his last 10 races here have seen him finish 24th or worse, with just one Top-10 finish in his last 11. He was 35th and 27th in Daytona this season, and 12th and 36th in Atlanta. 

Brad Keselowski (+1800)
Brad Keselowski has finished 23rd or worse in four of his last seven Talladega starts. On superspeedways this season, he finished 26th and 18th in Daytona, 39th and second in Atlanta, and 36th in Talladega (spring). 

Kyle Busch (+2000)
Kyle Busch has finished third, first, 26th, and 27th, respectively, in the last four spring Talladega races. However, those are also his only Top-5 finishes in his last 16 Talladega starts. Busch’s last 11 finishes in the fall Talladega race have been 11th or worse.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2000)
The last driver to win two straight Talladega fall races was Logano in 2015 and 2016. Stenhouse has finished 18th and 35th in Daytona this year, and 12th at Talladega this spring. 

Tyler Reddick (+2000)
Tyler Reddick won the spring race last year and was runner-up in the Daytona 500, but the win is his only Top-5 finish in 11 Talladega starts. He was 14th this spring. He also was 19th and fourth this season in Atlanta.

Bubba Wallace (+2200)
Bubba Wallace won here in 2021. My only pause is that his ninth-place finish here last fall and ninth this spring are his only finishes better than 14th at Talladega in his 15 Cup tries. He was 29th and 37th in Daytona this year, and ninth and 22nd in Atlanta. 

YellaWood 500 prop pick: Kyle Larson Top 5 finish

Kyle Larson is only 4-for-52 in terms of earning Top 5s on superspeedways. But, two of those have occurred in the last two Talladega races.

He also finished 20th and sixth this season in Daytona and third and 17th in Atlanta. Needing to protect points, Larson could play it safe throughout most of the race and thrive in the end. 

Pick: Kyle Larson Top 5 finish (+150 at DraftKings)

Talladega Superspeedway track analysis

Talladega is similar to Daytona, and now Atlanta too, which is why you’ll see the similar trends here. In saying that, don’t overthink it this week.

A non-playoff driver has won the Talladega playoff race just seven times. However, since the win-and-advance format was introduced in 2014, the playoff race has always been won by an eligible playoff driver, with the exception of 2021 and last year.

Ford has won 13 of the last 21 Talladega races, including this spring. Chevrolet has won three of the last six, while Toyota has only won four times in the last 32 Talladega races overall, but one was the spring of 2024 (Tyler Reddick). 

Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske have combined to win 13 races at drafting tracks in the Next Gen car, more than all other teams combined. 

Team Penske/Wood Brothers have spent 249 laps running together in first and second place at drafting tracks this year – more than double the laps of all other teams combined.

YellaWood 500 trends

• Seven of the nine playoff winners of the Talladega playoff race were at or below the cutline entering the race.
• Each of the last 10 Talladega races was won by a different driver, the longest streak of races there without a repeat winner. Also, the last 10 drafting track races were each won by a different driver.
• The eventual winner led 19 laps or fewer in each of the last nine Talladega races. The driver leading the most laps failed to win each of the last 10 Talladega races.
• Only twice has the Stage 1 winner at Talladega gone on to win the race, and only three times has the Stage 2 winner won. Seven of the last 11 Talladega races ended with a last lap pass, 33 total in 112 races.

YellaWood 500 info

Previous YellaWood 500 winners

Ford has won just one of the last five YellaWood 500s after winning every running from 2014 to 2019.

How to make YellaWood 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.

Pages related to this topic