Kyle Busch rode into the Winner's Circle last weekend, and sportsbooks are tabbing him as the pre-race favorite to do so again at this week's Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
As the early NASCAR Cup Series odds begin to evolve, Busch could make a serious statement with a second win in as many weeks, and with Top-5 finishes in this race each of the past two years, it's certainly within his grasp.
But is there also value in backing Toyota's cars as a collective?
Get a preview of the field with our Las Vegas NASCAR odds, plus full race analysis in our Pennzoil 400 betting picks.
Odds to win 2023 Pennzoil 400
| Driver | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | +600 |
| Kyle Larson | +700 |
| Ross Chastain | +800 |
| Joey Logano | +800 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1,000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,000 |
| William Byron | +1,200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,200 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,200 |
| Christopher Bell | +1,200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1,500 |
| Kevin Harvick | +2,000 |
| Alex Bowman | +2,000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +3,000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3,500 |
| Erik Jones | +4,000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +4,000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +5,000 |
| Austin Dillon | +5,000 |
| Ryan Preece | +6,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 28, 2023.
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Pennzoil 400 field
Kyle Busch heads into this week as the favorite (+600) after a convincing victory in the Pala Casino 400 last weekend. Despite posting strong results in this race in recent years, Busch hasn't won in Vegas since 2009, but he looks set to recapture his dominant form, now with RCR.
Trailing Busch is 2021 Cup Series champ Kyle Larson, who finished runner-up in this race last year, but has had a lackluster start to 2023, with finishes of 18th and 29th to kick off the campaign.
Under 10:1, we also find Ross Chastain and Joey Logano. Chastain had finishes of second and third at Vegas last year, while Logano has finishes of second and 10th so far in defense of his Cup Series championship.
Pennzoil 400 picks and predictions
Pennzoil 400 favorites
Kyle Busch (+600)
He was +1,500 last year. This year, he’s the favorite. Rightfully so, too. Busch has eight Top 7s in his last 11 Vegas starts including five straight Top 6s. He was fourth here last spring and third in the fall race to go along with being third at Kansas’ spring race, too. With what Tyler Reddick did in this car a year ago, I expect big things out of Busch on Sunday. Maybe a second straight visit to victory lane?
Kyle Larson (+700)
He has two consecutive Top-2 finishes in the spring race, including a 2021 win. Larson had fast race cars in each of the last two fall races in the Nevada desert as well, and on like tracks to Vegas last, season he finished second (Kansas 1), eighth (Kansas 2), and ninth (Coke 600). Larson needs a good finish and I think that can come on Sunday.
Ross Chastain (+800)
Chastain won an Xfinity race for Ganassi here and was third last spring after leading 83 laps and runner-up last Fall after leading 68 more. On top of that, Chastain finished seventh in both Kansas races last season as well. One could say he should be the favorite on Sunday, especially after leading 91 laps in Fontana — which included a pair of stage wins — and third-place result.
Pennzoil 400 sleepers
Better to just place them all together in this pack, as it’s basically the favorites vs. the Toyotas. If you feel better about the Toyotas, then this pack is for you. So, which among them are the best value?
Denny Hamlin (+1,000)
He was +650 last year and you get him for these odds now. Hamlin won the 2021 fall race and was fourth and second, respectively, in the two Kansas races last year. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver also has four Top-5 finishes in his last five Vegas starts, including a fifth-place run last fall.
Tyler Reddick (+1,500)
He hasn’t started off well this year. However, I do feel that changes this weekend. Vegas is just what he needs. Reddick has three consecutive Top-10 finishes here, including seventh in last year’s spring race and sixth in the fall. He led 32 laps in last October’s race.
Reddick also had two finishes outside the Top 30 last year at Kansas, but both were due to crashes while leading when a tire went down. This car won both Kansas races, however, with Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace in the fall. On top of that, this car won the opening stage here last fall as well.
Bubba Wallace (+4,000)
Wallace shows finishes of 25th and 36th here last year. However, he won Stage 1 in the fall race before he lost his cool up front with Kyle Larson. Wallace also won the Kansas race last fall.
Pennzoil 400 fades
Joey Logano (+800)
He has 11 Top-10 finishes in his last 14 Vegas starts including a win last Fall. But coming only 14th here in the spring race and 17th in both races at Kansas last year makes me wary. Especially for these odds.
Chase Elliott (+1,000)
Prior to a runner-up in the 2021 playoff race, Elliott had just two career Top 5s on this track with his last four finishes being 26th, 22nd, 13th, and ninth respectively. He has six finishes of 21st or worse there too, and was only 29th and 11th at Kansas last season and 21st in last year’s Vegas playoff race too.
Ryan Blaney (+1,200)
Has eight Top-7 finishes in his last 12 starts in Vegas. He was 12th and ninth, respectively, in Kansas though, and 28th last fall.
Pennzoil 400 prop pick: Race winning manufacturer
Ford has been the most prolific team on the 1.5-mile track with 14 wins in 30 tries. However, Toyota dominated this track and Kansas (the closest resembling track) last season.
In the spring Vegas race, Toyotas led 107 of the 274 laps (39%). In Kansas 1, they led 171 of 267 laps (64%) and took home finishing spots 1-3-4-5-6. In Kansas 2, they led 94 of the 267 laps (35%) but finished 1-2-3-5.
That’s why with plus money, go the Toyota direction here.
Pick: Toyota (+280 at DraftKings)
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Las Vegas Motor Speedway track analysis
This will be the 31st time that the Cup Series has visited the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. 26 of those have come in March.
Vegas has become a track that produces a ton of lead changes lately, with the last six featuring at least 20, including seven of the last nine overall.
It has character with some bumps in the turns, and has turned into a track that can reward pit strategy in the event you can take two tires later, or even gamble with fuel only. Nothing changes this year since nothing about the car, nor the track, changed between last season and now.
Also, over the past five NASCAR Cup Series seasons, the spring race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a precursor to how the rest of the campaign will go. This is key for your futures bets.
In 2017, Martin Truex Jr. led 150 of the 267 laps in the Cup race en route to a dominating victory. He’d go on to win seven more times that season including the championship as well.
In 2018, Kevin Harvick won his first of eight trips to Victory Lane in the March race in Vegas, as he led 214 laps that day. No one won as many races in 2018 as Harvick.
Joey Logano won the next two spring races and would march to fifth in the final standings at the end of the year in 2019 and the Championship 4 in 2020.
Kyle Larson won the 2021 spring race and won the title too later. The entire top six of the finishing order that spring took up six of the eight spots into the Round of 8 last postseason.
Last year, Alex Bowman beat Larson and both made the Round of 12. Larson had his car in the Final Four last year. Ross Chastain was third in the spring race and marched to his first Championship 4. William Byron was 5th and made the Round of 8.
Over the last 14 Cup races in Vegas, Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Harvick, Truex Jr., Logano, and Larson have combined to win 12 of them. All but Hamlin is a series champion. Also, Penske, SHR, HMS, JGR/Furniture Row have won the 13 of the last 14 Vegas races. The last other team to win outside of Kurt Busch’s triumph with Chip Ganassi Racing in the 2020 Fall race? Roush/Fenway Racing (Carl Edwards) in 2011.
Pennzoil 400 trends
- The last nine Vegas races were won by a non-front-row starter. The last time someone from the front row won in Vegas was Kevin Harvick in this Spring race in 2018. In fact, there’s only been one pole-sitter to ever win in Vegas history (30 races). That was Kyle Busch back in 2009.
- 23 of the last 26 Vegas races were won by a past champion.
- The second stage winner at Vegas has won seven times and was fifth in another in 10 tries. 2020 was the only outlier, when Elliott swept both stages in the spring race but cut a tire in the end. Kurt Busch snuck up and stole a win in the fall race. That’s four of the last six races this stage produced the race winner.
