AdventHealth 400: Kansas Speedway Picks, Odds & Race Preview

After Martin Truex Jr. won his first race in almost two years last weekend, NASCAR pivots to Kansas for another oval-track race: the AdventHealth 400. 

Kyle Larson finds himself in a familiar position this week, sitting atop the odds board as the NASCAR Cup Series odds leader chases his third win of the season.

Is there value in the favorite? Are other contenders viable in this contender-heavy field? Find out how the field stacks up with our AdventHealth 400 odds, along with a full race analysis and your best NASCAR betting picks for Kansas.

Odds to win 2023 AdventHealth 400

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of  May 2, 2023.

AdventHealth 400 field

Kyle Larson (+500) tops the odds board yet again this week, as has become fairly routine this season. With two wins already in 2023, Larson may be beginning to find his dominant form again after a bit of a step back last season. He won at Kansas in 2021 and finished second and eighth here last year, so the results are there, even after finishes of 32nd and 33rd the past two races. 

His HMS teammate William Byron sits second at +600, suggesting a clear edge for the Chevys on this track.

Closely trailing them on the odds board is a slew of other contenders — a hefty six total available at +850 or better — including former three-time Kansas winner Denny Hamlin and two-time winner Truex, riding the high of last weekend's win. 

Overall, the field's favorites are clearly defined. While 12 drivers are available at +1,800 or better, a huge chasm exists between that group and the rest of the field; three drivers (at +3,500) bridge the gap between +2,200 and +6,000, making this very much a field of haves and have-nots. 

What this type of odds distribution does do is accentuate value within the lower tier, while some of the name favorites who haven't produced on this type of track could be worth fading.

AdventHealth 400 picks and predictions

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AdventHealth 400 favorites

Kyle Larson (+550)

He dominated in leading the most laps, but didn’t win the 2021 spring race. He then would win the playoff race though in the fall of 2021. He was runner-up and eighth, respectively, last year for his sixth Top 8 — four being in the Top 4 — in his last eight Kansas tries. Larson led 63 laps and finished runner-up this spring in Vegas too. 

William Byron (+550)

He has six Top-10 finishes in his last seven starts at Kansas, including ninth and sixth respectively last year. Byron also led 176 laps in a Vegas win this spring too. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+750)

Since 2017, he’s had a Top-10 finish in all but one Kansas start including sweeping both race wins in 2017. He finished sixth and fifth last year and was seventh this past March in Vegas. He went over 50 races without a win before being victorious on Monday in Dover. Can he win two straight? He’s done so once in his career, back in 2019 in the playoff races at Las Vegas and Richmond. The span between those races? Six days.

AdventHealth 400 sleepers

Ross Chastain (+1,400)

Seventh in both races last year lands him here. So does being 12th in Vegas. He enters on the heels of nearly leading 100 laps in Dover and finishing runner-up. 

Kyle Busch (+1,600)

He won in May of 2021 and has six Top-5 finishes in his last nine Kansas starts, including a third-place run last May. This car with Tyler Reddick had good speed here as well. 

23XI Racing

The 45 car swept both races last year via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+1,800) in the fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in last year's May race while Wallace led 58 laps in his October win. Wallace was also fourth this past spring in Vegas too. Tyler Reddick (+750) with RCR last year was seventh and 35th but that 35th was a crash after leading 38 laps. 

AdventHealth 400 fades

Denny Hamlin (+800)

The only driver to have won multiple times here in the last 11 races, and was fourth and second here last year. However, he says that his pit crew has been a problem area for the team this season. With that, plus him speeding on pit road throughout the year so far, I feel like is a recipe for disaster. 

Chase Elliott (+1,200)

He’s had six Top-6 finishes in his last nine Kansas starts, including fifth and second in 2021. However, being 29th and 11th last year, and no Top-5 finishes on good tracks for him in the three races back from his leg injury also concerns me. 

Team Penske

Austin Cindric (+10,000) was 11th and 12th, respectively, last year as a rookie. His last five finishes on the season were: 28th, 19th, 33rd, 26th, and 26th, respectively. Ryan Blaney (+1,800) has had five of his last eight Kansas finish 20th or worse. Joey Logano (+2,200) has finished 15th or worse in six of his last eight at Kansas. They were sixth (Cindric), 13th (Blaney), and 36th (Logano) in Vegas. He's also finished 30th or worse in three of the last four weeks on the season. 

AdventHealth 400 prop pick: Suarez (-110) vs. Gibbs (-110) 

Suarez enters Kansas reeling. Seven of his last eight finishes have been 17th or worse. He’s struggled on this track too. Meanwhile, Gibbs enters hot with what should be two consecutive Top-5 finishes. His car ran out of gas in each of the last two weeks while running inside of the Top 5. He finished ahead of Suarez in four of the previous five weeks before that, too. Also, we know how strong Toyotas are at Kansas, and Gibbs won in ARCA and Xfinity there. 

Pick: Gibbs (-110 at DraftKings)

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Kansas Speedway track analysis

Kansas is a track that has somewhat been recently paved, which makes this a very difficult track to pass on too. The outside lane is better, but there is a chance to take the lead from the inside. This is mostly a restart/track position track. You can gamble on two tires, or depending on how late you are in the race, zero tires. Clean air is key here because of that.  

Toyota has won five of the last seven Kansas races, and seven of the last 12. They swept last year. In fact, Toyotas went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the Fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) a year ago. 

The thing is, William Byron and Kyle Larson went 1-2 in Vegas this year, which of all the tracks on the schedule, is closest to Kansas. They combined to lead 239 of 271 laps (88.1%) that day. They were 1-2 in both stages as well as Alex Bowman giving them a 1-2-3 finish in Stage 2. 

Since 2011, every Kansas winner has won a series championship, with the exception of Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace. 

In fact, only Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Joe Nemechek, and Wallace have won at Kansas and not also won a Cup title. Kyle Larson joined that list, but only for a few months in the fall of 2021 before he became a champion. 

AdventHealth 400 trends

• Eight of the last 12 Kansas winners have come from the Top 6 of the starting lineup, including four of the last five.
  
  
• 12 of the last 14 Kansas winners started in the Top 6 rows.
  
  
• The eventual race winner scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era, with the exception of last year's spring race.
  
  
• The eventual race winner finished in the Top 5 in 6 of the last seven second stages, and nine of the 12 overall second stages.

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