The NASCAR playoffs' opening round draws to a close this week with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
With four drivers about to be eliminated from title contention, the chase for the final spots will be every bit as intriguing as the battle up top.
Get the inside track on your NASCAR betting with Auto Racing Advisor preview and picks for the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, which gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 18.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race favorites
Kyle Busch (+400)
Hard to pick against him. Busch has three Top-2 finishes in his last four starts on concrete, including a runner-up in each of the last two runnings of this race. Busch finished runner-up in last year’s All-Star Race as well.
Joey Logano (+1,000)
Logano has been stout at Bristol lately too. He has seven Top 10s in his last 11 Bristol starts, and if not for late-race contact with Chase Elliott last spring, he would have won or at the very least finished second.
Chase Elliott (+800)
He nearly won the race last spring, but won the All-Star Race instead in July. Elliott was also fifth in this race in 2019 and third in 2018.
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Bass Pro Shops Night Race long-shot picks
Kurt Busch (+1,500)
He won this race in 2018. That was his sixth Bristol victory, and he’s had three Top 10s in his last four Bristol tries.
Aric Almirola (+3,000)
He was fifth in this race last year and hasn’t fared too bad at Bristol in general.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race matchup pick
Brad Keselowski (-135) vs. Martin Truex Jr. (+110)
Keselowski has two Top 3s in his last three Bristol starts. Truex hasn't had a Top 5 on this track since 2012. This is an easy one.
PREDICTION: Keselowski (-135)
Bass Pro Shops Night Race fades
Kevin Harvick (+1,100)
Wild to have the defending race winner on here, but his win last year was his first Top 5 in his last seven starts. With how this season is for him, I don’t like his chances on Saturday night.
Ryan Blaney (+1,500)
He’s led a lot of laps but has one Top 5 in 11 Bristol starts, including his last three finishes being 10th, 40th and 13th, respectively.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,800)
He’s had one Top 10 in his last 17 Bristol tries. Furthermore, he’s been 20th or worse in 13 of the last 15 there.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race preview
The final race of the opening round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is upon us. The highly anticipated cutoff race at Bristol Motor Speedway should be met with fireworks on and off the track on Saturday night.
Last year’s playoff race didn’t necessarily deliver, but without a race on the concrete this past spring, will the extra anticipation have the nerves and heart rates high?
A cutoff race though, is spent paying more attention to the bottom part of the standings than the top. That’s because the top drivers know that they likely are advancing to the next round. The bottom? They need help.
Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Michael McDowell are all on the outside looking in right now. Who moves on and who doesn’t?
Toyota has swept the first round so far and has a great chance of winning all three races on Saturday night. Denny Hamlin won this race in 2019 and has led 45 percent (343 of 767) of laps this postseason, with finishes of first and second, respectively. Kyle Busch has three Top-2 finishes in his last four Bristol starts, including three wins in the last six in general. Christopher Bell was runner-up in Loudon and third in Richmond in his last two short-track tries.
Kyle Larson has joined Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. to advance on but he’s got a great shot of earning the victory if a JGR car doesn’t. Larson has five straight Top-6 finishes on the season, including four of those in the Top 3. He had a pair of runner-ups at Bristol in 2019.
Chase Elliott was fourth last week and 3rd, 5th and 7th in the last three Bristol night races.
I think the SHR duo does enough to get by, with Kevin Harvick having won this race last year, but it being his only Top 5 in the last seven there. This was also his last win overall too. He’s had one Top 5 in his last seven starts on the year and only one finish better than fourth all season. He’s been fifth and eighth, respectively, in the playoffs with 15 stage points, so I think his 25-point cushion gets him by.
Same for Aric Almirola. He was fifth last year and has six stage points this postseason, but has been 14th or worse in nine of his last 10 tries. With the guys below him and how they’ve fared, I think he does just enough to get by too.
Speaking of those guys on the good side of the bubble, Brad Keselowski (+13), Kyle Busch (+8), Almirola (+3) and Kurt Busch (+0) hold the final four spots and have combined to win 5 of the last 6 at Bristol.
Alex Bowman (one Top 5 in last 11), Tyler Reddick (two Top 5s all year), William Byron (five of last eight being 23rd or worse) and Michael McDowell (14 straight of 16th or worse) aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders. They’ve combined for six stage points all playoffs. Bowman has been 15th or worse in each of his last four Bristol starts. Byron has been 16th or worse in five of his six tries. Reddick was fourth last year with McDowell 10th, but they almost need a miracle to get by.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race key stat
Starting spot is key when you’re starting on the pole (three winners in the last six, including two of the last three). If you’re not on the pole, you might as well start from outside the Top 10. Four of the last nine winners have come from Row 6 on back. Plus, Chevy hasn’t won in the last seven points-paying Bristol starts and only has two wins in their last 15 starts there.
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