Bellator 297 Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire Picks and Predictions: Pitbull Proves He Still Has Some Bite

Patricio Freire is moving down in weight at age 35, never an easy task. But our Bellator betting picks believe Sergio Pettis could be the one struggling with conditioning off a long layoff on Friday night.

Danny Howard - Contributor at Covers.com
Danny Howard • Betting Analyst
Jun 15, 2023 • 11:57 ET • 4 min read
Bellator 297
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Patricio “Pitbull” Freire is attempting to become a three-division MMA champion, with his eyes on the bantamweight title currently held by the formidable Sergio Pettis. These two champions collide in the co-main event of Bellator 297 this Friday, June 16, from the Wintrust Arena in Chicago.

MMA odds favor Freire to make history as a -190 favorite. Defending champion Pettis is a +160 underdog. While this may be the legend’s night, the intangibles might tilt the favor toward the champ.

Freire is chasing history, but Pettis might put an end to his conquests with his heavy hands. Here are my best free Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire picks and predictions for Bellator 297 on Friday, June 16.

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire odds

Market Sergio Pettis Patricio Freire
Moneyline +170 -200
To win by KO,TKO,DQ, or submission OTB OTB
To win by Points OTB OTB

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on June 15, 2023

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Best Bellator bonuses

Looking to do some Bellator 297 betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users at bet365 can bet $1 and get $100 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now

B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire betting preview

The 35-year-old Freire has to be commended for the gargantuan task put before him. Fighters at this post-prime phase of their careers usually move up in weight, not down. As a former featherweight and lightweight champion, “Pitbull’s” athleticism and ring IQ has kept him at the top of the Bellator mountain for many years. Last December, Freire shut down Kleber Koike Erbst at the Bellator vs. Rizin FF event.

Considering his 5-foot-6 frame and general build, Freire has a typical build for a bantamweight. His fast strikes and excellent ground game have made him a terror, though he works behind his Muay Thai more than his grappling. The active Freire still looks like a force, nimbly moving across the cage and expertly picking his shots as the opportunities arise.

While Pettis is a problem, an added hurdle will be the weight. This will be the lowest weight Freire has ever competed at, and he’s no spring chicken. Should Freire sweat down to the bantamweight limit, and it doesn’t compromise his conditioning and movement, he’ll have a tremendous size advantage and boost to his striking power.

If Freire has to battle the scales, then Pettis has to deal with ring rust. We haven’t seen the champion in action since December 2021, knocking out Kyoji Horiguchi while behind on all the scorecards. The Horiguchi fight emphasized his weaknesses, but also his improved composure after an uneven run in the UFC before coming to Bellator.

Pettis’ patience is boosted by his excellent striking power. He’s careful in picking his spots and has the situational awareness to know when to attack and defend. Like Freire, he’s a technically proficient kickboxer who has a strong jab and devastating head kicks.

That said, Pettis might be too passive at times. In the past, he’s been careless on the ground and often rushes to stand back up, which isn’t wise against Freire. Though he should have a natural advantage as being more acclimated to the division, 18 months is a long time for anyone to be out of competition.

Covers MMA Betting Analysis

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire tale of the tape

Sergio Pettis   Patricio Freire
29 Age 35
5-foot-6 Height 5-foot-6
134 lbs Weight 145 lbs
69 inches Reach 65.5 inches
22-5 (4 KO) Record 35-5 (12 KO)

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

After seeing Pettis snatch victory from the hands of a lopsided defeat, then be off for this long, I’m going with Freire. His offense is sharper, and he will have a tremendous advantage if he succeeds in getting Pettis on the ground. The weight is a concern, hence the odds, but Freire is the better fighter who should be able to run through a rusty Pettis.

Pick: Freire Moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)

With no other lines available at the time of this writing, we’re sticking to the moneyline as our best bet.

Pick: Freire Moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic

Danny Howard - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

After a decade of covering all things boxing, from recapping the sport’s biggest fights to sharing behind-the-scenes details of the sweet science, Danny found himself immersed in sports betting, focusing on the sports he knows best. As a boxing and MMA contributor with seasoned experience from growing up around each sport, he can uncover the nuances and intangibles that can make the difference between victory and defeat.

Danny’s work has been mentioned on ESPN and USA Today, and he was a featured guest on The Esportz Network podcast, where he shared his combat sports insights. He is also a published author, with his novel And Stay Down! Boxing’s Worst Comebacks available on Amazon.

Danny is always on the lookout for the best odds and props when it comes to fight night, with Draft Kings and BetMGM being his go-to sites. Danny’s approach to finding value in the theater of the unexpected hinges on the fighters' recent form, especially when considering props.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo