The St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees will continue a weekend series this evening in the Bronx. With the Yankees chasing a playoff spot, we’re fading a certain pitcher in this matchup.
My Yankees vs. Cardinals predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Saturday, August 16.
Yankees vs Cardinals prediction
Yankees vs Cardinals best bet: Sonny Gray Under 17.5 outs (-130)
We’re fading Sonny Gray. With a BatX projection of just over 15 outs recorded, Gray Under 17.5 outs is one of the clearest edges to be found in this game. I find myself in total agreement, too.
There are a few warning signs for Gray heading into this matchup. One of those doesn’t have to do with him at all, though – it’s his opponent. The New York Yankees are, perhaps, starting to snap out of their extended midseason slump.
Most of the metrics are up across the board over the last seven days, but in a more basic sense, New York has won three of its last four games and scored four or more runs in all of those wins. That’s something they had done just once post-All-Star break prior to this.
That regression to the mean for the Yankees should be concerning for Gray for the obvious reason of simply not wanting to face an offense that is firing. However, there’s one aspect in particular that’s of specific concern: Gray’s barrel rate.
He’ll enter this game with one that’s in the bottom 30% of baseball, with a slight rise in his homers per nine innings. This is a Yankees offense that has led the league in barrel rate for a few years now, and this season is no different.
With all of that in mind, not to mention the hitting-friendly conditions in the Bronx, I expect the Yankees to make this an uncomfortable outing for the St. Louis Cardinals’ ace.
It certainly doesn’t hurt that these two teams are in completely different places at the moment either, with one chasing a playoff spot and one appearing ready for its season to end.
Yankees vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees First Five Innings moneyline
Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 hits
Ben Rice Over 0.5 hits
Caesars doesn’t allow you to use a pitching outs under in a same-game parlay, thus we replaced it with the next most closely correlated prop. We also added a pair of hitter props.
One Under and one Over. Ryan McMahon will come into this game owning the highest whiff rate among Yankees players and figures to struggle against an elite strikeout thrower.
Conversely, Ben Rice figures to have success with a strong barrel rate and low strikeout rate.
Yankees vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +107 | New York -147
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+106)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Cardinals trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 104 games (+5.72 Units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Yankees vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Saturday, August 16, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (12-5, 2.94 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (11-5, 4.06 ERA) |
Yankees vs Cardinals latest injuries
Yankees vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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