In keeping with the rest of their season, the Toronto Blue Jays are doing things the hard way in the AL Wild Card race — and the pressure is back on for tonight’s matchup with the New York Yankees.
The postseason probabilities are still very much in the Blue Jays’ favor with four games to go, but they’re testing that math after being shut out in back-to-back games against a Yankees team with nothing to play for beyond a spoiler role.
Gerrit Cole pitched a complete game and allowed just two hits in New York’s 6-0 win last night, while Aaron Judge delivered most of the Yankees’ offense with a pair of two-run homers.
Take a closer look at this showdown with our free MLB picks for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on September 28.
Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions
It’s been a rollercoaster season for the Toronto Blue Jays and it seems like they've saved the biggest dips and drops for the September schedule.
In their last nine games at Rogers Centre, they've been swept by the Rangers, grabbed a sweep of their own against the Red Sox, and have been blanked twice by the New York Yankees this week.
Given all that, nothing is really off-limits tonight, but I’m picking another low-scoring scrap in a series where both games have cashed in the Under so far.
The Blue Jays scored 21 runs in their three games against the Rays at the weekend, but they’ve been ice-cold since returning to Toronto. The Yankees’ starters have had their number, with Michael King and Cole combining to hold the hosts to a measly five hits in this series so far.
No one is suggesting tonight’s starter Luke Weaver is at that same level, but he’s settled quickly in New York after being signed off waivers earlier this month and he’s a relative unknown for most of the Toronto lineup. Weaver’s ERA is just 2.20 over his last five outings.
Then there’s Chris Bassitt, who takes the ball for the Blue Jays and has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings against the Yankees back in May, and only one of his last seven appearances has seen a final score featuring more than eight runs.
With neither offense firing on all cylinders, I see runs being at a premium here and I’m taking the Under.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-105 at SIA)
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Yankees vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Blue Jays ML
Brandon Belt Over 0.5 hits
While I like the Under, there’s a case for the Blue Jays cutting loose, with Weaver a significant drop-off from the wizardry that Cole brought last night. Give me the Blue Jays as they look to avoid the sweep.
I’ll pad the odds with a Brandon Belt, who's got a terrific record against Weaver, going 5-for-9 with three doubles. I’m riding that matchup edge tonight.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
With the pitching matchup in Toronto’s favor and the urgency being cranked up after two wretched nights at the plate, it’s no surprise to see the Blue Jays positioned as favorites — and you can find odds north of +150 for the Yankees moneyline.
Despite wobbling again this week, the hosts are 6-4 in their last 10 games, though New York leads the season series 7-5 and has won five out of six at Rogers Centre. With the wild-card race tightening up again around them, it’s fair to expect the Blue Jays to be aggressive in chasing a win tonight.
I like the Under for all the reasons above, and it’s tough to pick a run-fest here after seeing Toronto struggle to get baserunners in this series. George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — so often the sparks for this team — are a combined 0-for-13 in the two losses.
The trends support the Under too. It’s hit in 30 of the Yankees’ last 51 road games, as well as 43 of the Blue Jays’ past 76 home games. If you’re looking for another sign that we’re heading for a low-scoring showdown tonight, the Under is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings between these teams this year.
Trend to know
The Blue Jays’ slow starts have repeatedly piled pressure on their pitching staff this year — and this month has been no different. The first-five team total Under has been a winner in 16 of Toronto’s last 20 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
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Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, September 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Luke Weaver (3-5, 6.47 ERA): New York is Weaver’s third team this year after stops with the Reds and Mariners, and his ugly ERA mainly stems from a string of rough outings in June, but he stifled the Diamondbacks in his last start with 5 1/3 scoreless innings.
Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.74 ERA): The Blue Jays have relied on their veteran righty in a big way this season — and Bassitt has delivered, especially at Rogers Centre where his ERA dips to 3.08. He got the better of Tampa Bay on Friday with eight strikeouts in a 6-2 win, and he’s going for a career-best 16th win tonight.
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