Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best hitters in the world, and I can't help but back him to have a big game tonight in Houston.
I'm also betting on a couple of breakout players with Cincinnati's Andrew Abbot and A's slugger Tyler Soderstrom in favorable matchups. Here are my favorite MLB player props to bet on Tuesday, May 13.
Best MLB player props today
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Abbott u2.5 ER (-135) -
Soderstrom o1.5 TB (+140) -
Witt Jr. o1.5 TB (-115)
MLB props for May 13
Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 earned runs (-135 at DraftKings)
I'm surprised to see the Under 2.5 earned runs for Andrew Abbott priced at -135. The 25-year-old is having a breakout season, pitching to a 2.25 ERA with an OBA of .186 through five starts. Abbott has allowed fewer than 1.5 earned runs in four of his five starts, and the analytics indicate his numbers are sustainable long-term.
The southpaw is in the Top 15th percentile in expected ERA (2.63) while sitting in Top 10th percentile in strikeout rate (31.6%). Meanwhile, his expected batting average (.175) and hard-hit rate (25.5%) are among the best numbers in baseball.
He takes on the Chicago White Sox, who are 27th in the majors in runs per game (3.39) and dead last in OPS (.612). They're even worse against lefties, batting just .217 with an OPS of .594.
Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at Bet99)
Athletics first baseman Tyler Soderstrom is having a breakout season, slashing .288/.349/.506 and ranking 17th in the majors in total bases (79).
Tonight, he'll face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers and sophomore Landon Knack, who has a 4.61 ERA with an xERA of 4.82 through four starts. Knack is in the Bottom 15th percentile in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.6%).
Soderstrom is in the Top 20th percentile in exit velocity (92 mph) and hard-hit rate (50.4%) while sitting in the Top 10th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.551). The left-handed Soderstrom also slugs .544 with the platoon advantage.
This is a five-star play according to the THE BAT X, which is projecting 1.7 total bases for Soderstrom today.
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)
Bobby Witt Jr. entered superstar territory by finishing last year as the AL MVP runner up after slashing .332/.389/.588 for the Kansas City Royals. He's in the midst of another strong season and ranks sixth in the majors in total bases (90) through 43 games.
Witt went 2-for-4 at the dish against the Houston Astros last night and surprisingly picked up his first triple of the season after leading the majors in that category last year.
The hard-hitting shortstop will have a good matchup today against Houston starter Framber Valdez.
Valdez has struggled this year, pitching to a 3.94 ERA through seven starts. The southpaw has an xERA of 4.43, and his xBA (.274), hard-hit rate (45.1%), and exit velocity (91.2 mph) are all in the Bottom 25th percentile. Valdez relies primarily on his sinker and curveball.
Witt crushes both offerings, slugging .727 against sinkers and 1.000 versus curves. He also thrives with the platoon advantage, slashing .393/.438/.571 against lefties.
When you also consider the stiff 16 mph wind blowing towards the outfield at Daikin Park today, the Over 1.5 total bases for Witt needs to be one of your MLB picks.
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