Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Picks & Odds — Wednesday, September 3

Cordell's prediction: As Jason Alexander takes the mound for Houston, it sets the stage for a big game from Cody Bellinger.

Todd Cordell - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Todd Cordell • Betting Analyst
Sep 3, 2025 • 16:54 ET • 4 min read

MLB

Match starts: 34 mins
HOU
50 %
NYY
50 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Cody Bellinger o1.5  Total Bases (+100) Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
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Cody Bellinger New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Cody Bellinger rounds the bases after hitting a home run.

Cody Bellinger is off to a strong debut season with the New York Yankees, showcasing both power and consistency at the plate while contributing to the league’s top-scoring offense.

In my Yankees vs. Astros predictions, I expect Bellinger to continue his hot streak in a favorable matchup against Jason Alexander.

Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for Wednesday, September 3.

Yankees vs Astros prediction

Yankees vs Astros best bet: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

There’s a lot to like about Cody Bellinger in this matchup. For one, Houston Astros starting pitcher Jason Alexander struggles against left-handed bats. Mightily so.

Alexander has allowed a .271 average to lefties compared to a .237 average vs. righties. Even more notable is the discrepancy between how much power he’s given up. Left-handed hitters like Bellinger have averaged 1.8 homers per nine innings and managed a whopping .246 ISO.

Alexander has been much, much tougher on righties, giving up 1.1 homers per nine and a very modest .114 ISO. Check one for Bellinger. Also working in Bellinger’s favor is the fact that Alexander constantly throws pitches he excels against.

Nearly 70% of Alexander’s pitches to lefties are either changeups or sinkers. Bellinger owns a .333 average vs. changeups while hitting .295 — with an ISO over .200 — against the sinker.

Given Alexander’s struggles against lefties and how well Bellinger performs vs. his most common pitches, there’s a good chance Bellinger hits for power Wednesday night.

Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)

Alexander has a difficult time slowing left-handed bats down and it’s possible, if not likely, Bellinger hits behind a couple of lefties (Trent Grisham, Ben Rice) as well as a generational talent in Aaron Judge. There should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths, giving Bellinger opportunities to cash in.

Yordan Alvarez is also in a good spot to make noise offensively. Yankees starter Will Warren has allowed homers to lefties at twice the rate of righties. He has also performed much worse in road starts.

Yankees vs Astros odds

  • Moneyline: New York -125 | Houston +105
  • Run line: New York -1.5 (+130) | Houston +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Yankees vs Astros trend

Cody Bellinger has averaged 2.4 total bases over his last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.

How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info

Location Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date Wednesday, September 3, 2025
First pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
TV Amazon Prime Video, Space City Home Network
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren
(8-6, 4.30 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher Jason Alexander
(4-1, 4.61 ERA)

Yankees vs Astros latest injuries

Yankees vs Astros weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell - Covers
Betting Analyst

Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.

When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.

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