Yordan Alvarez feasted on the New York Yankees last time out, recording four hits in a winning effort.
My Yankees vs. Astros predictions see Alvarez picking up where he left off in the series finale. Let’s take a closer look at my September 4 MLB picks.
Yankees vs Astros prediction
Yankees vs Astros best bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
The New York Yankees had no answer for Yordan Alvarez on Wednesday night. He hit safely in four of his five plate appearances and played an instrumental role in the Houston Astros’ come-from-behind victory.
He has a good opportunity to build on that performance against Carlos Rodon. While Rodon is having a strong season, he hasn’t been untouchable — especially on the road. He’s allowed multiple earned runs in six of his last seven, with the lone exception coming against a bad White Sox team.
Alvarez mashes left-handed pitching like few others. He posted a remarkable .362 average vs. lefties a season ago and owns a .318 average this year, albeit over a small sample.
Rodon balances three pitches almost perfectly when facing left-handed hitters like Alvarez, throwing fastballs, sliders, and sinkers each at more than a 30% clip.
Last season Alvarez hit .316 against fastballs and .353 against sliders. He’s only seen nine sinkers from lefties this season but managed to take one of them deep.
He profiles well against what Rodon throws and, after a four-hit performance, is clearly finding his form. Expect another productive night at the plate.
Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Christian Walker has gone hitless in four of his last five, but I like his chances of bucking that trend against Rodon and the Yankees.
Walker owns a .257 ISO against Rodon’s most-used pitch, the fastball, and has hit .286 against No. 2 in the slider. He has 14 at-bats against Rodon and has seen nearly 80 pitches, so he should be comfortable with what he’s facing.
Wednesday’s game featured 15 runs, and we should see a steady dose once again. Alvarez ranks second in the MLB in hard hit balls over the last week while Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Jeremy Pena, among others, own great numbers against lefties.
Not to mention, they’re going up against Aaron Judge and the MLB’s highest-scoring offense. The road team should be able to pull their weight on the total.
Yankees vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: New York -140 | Houston +115
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+125) | Houston +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Yankees vs Astros trend
Yordan Alvarez has recorded multiple bases in three of his past four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.
How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, August 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (15-7, 3.18 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Cristian Javier (1-1, 3.38 ERA) |
Yankees vs Astros latest injuries
Yankees vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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