Baseball is back.
Another year, another chance for the Houston Astros to assert their dominance over the American League.
Dusty Baker’s squad won the 2022 World Series, and will look to begin their title defense with an Opening Day matchup against the Chicago White Sox.
The Astros won 106 games in the regular season a year ago, and are favored to get things started in 2023 with a victory. Will that be the case? Check out our MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Astros on Thursday, March 30 below to find out.
White Sox vs Astros odds
White Sox vs Astros predictions
This one is expected to be a pitching duel, with the total residing at either 7 or 7.5 depending on the book. That’s commonplace on Opening Day, where both teams send out their respective aces, and that’s exactly the case in this game.
White Sox starter Dylan Cease was fantastic a year ago, and there’s a reason he’s expected to compete for the AL Cy Young in 2023. He posted a 2.20 ERA in 2022, and the underlying numbers — while not quite as impressive as the surface-level ones — did support that he was effective. He sported a 2.70 xERA and a 3.10 FIP, and was effective at limited hard contact, as evidenced by his 6.2% barrel rate.
His opponent on Thursday, the Astros’ Framber Valdez, managed a 3.31 xERA and a 3.06 FIP a year ago. He routinely kept hitters from squaring up the ball, posting a 5.8% barrel rate that ranked sixth among pitchers with at least 500 batted ball events to use as data points. In other words, he was very effective over a large sample size.
The Astros begin the season a bit shorthanded, as Jose Altuve is out for two months after getting surgery on his right thumb. Outfielder Michael Brantley begins the season on the injured list as he recovers from right shoulder surgery.
Slugger Yordan Alvarez is tentatively considered to be available as he continues to deal with discomfort in his left hand. It’s fair to question whether or not Alvarez will be 100% to begin the season considering he didn’t swing a bat for the first time this spring until about three weeks ago.
As for the White Sox, their lineup will be somewhat diminished this season without the services of slugger Jose Abreu — who, coincidentally, will be facing his former team on Opening Day, as he is lacing up for the Astros this season.
The offense was pedestrian a year ago with a 99 wRC+ as a whole, and the hope is that new hitting coach Jose Castro can bring the best out of mainstays like Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, and Andrew Vaughn. Things seem to have gotten a bit stale for this team, and the lineup massively underperformed a season ago. Last year, only two players that had at least 200 plate appearances managed an OPS above .750 — and one of them was Abreu, who is now gone.
I’ll be counting on a low-scoring opening game between these two sides. This contest features two elite starting pitchers and two lineups with question marks. The Astros are always dangerous but will be short-handed, while the White Sox underperformed a year ago and made few impactful offseason moves to address that issue.
The books are wise to the First 5 Under, as the total is set at just 3.5 runs, so I won’t get too cute and will play the full game Under. There is a 7.5 available at -118 odds so I will snap that up, although 7 is also available for slight plus money (+105) if that is your preference.
My best bet: Under 7.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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White Sox vs Astros moneyline analysis
Houston opened as a -170 favorite, but the line has moved in at current. The Astros are now down to as low as -145 at some spots, with the highest price available sitting at -155. The best price on the White Sox at current is +135 at DraftKings.
I happen to be in agreement with this line move. The Astros are an elite franchise and are expected to compete for 95 or more wins this season, and that’s not an accident. This team is as well-stocked as ever in all facets of the game, and expecting too steep of a drop-off would be unwise. Death, taxes, and the Astros competing for the top spot in the American League.
That being said, the plus-odds being offered on the White Sox are appealing considering they have their ace on the mound in Cease. It’s rare that Valdez is anticipated to be the second-best pitcher on the mound on any given day, but that’s the case Thursday, as Cease turned himself into an elite pitcher a year ago by lowering his barrel rate by nearly four percentage points (3.7% decrease from 2021 to 2022).
Consider it a lean only, but this plus-money on Chicago is appealing.
White Sox vs Astros Over/Under analysis
Houston has trended strongly to the Under against right-handed starters, going 8-22-3 O/U in its last 33 such games. That’s also been the case against effective pitchers; the Astros have a 2-8-1 O/U record in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15.
This total is in a range that has been a sweet spot for Houston Unders, as the Astros are 9-24-4 O/U in their last 37 games with a total between 7.0 and 8.5.
The White Sox are 1-4 O/U in their last five games against left-handed starters. They weren’t terrible against lefties a year ago, posting a 109 wRC+ and a .727 OPS against southpaws from the beginning of July onward. That being said, Valdez isn’t your average left-hander — he’s elite.
A lot of Chicago’s success against southpaws came by way of the walk, posting the fifth-best walk rate (8.9%) against lefties from July onward. Valdez walked a career-low 2.88 batters per nine innings in 2022, and would be wise to avoid issuing many free passes in this spot.
White Sox vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, March 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
White Sox vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dylan Cease (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Cease was fantastic a year ago, breaking out with a 14-8 record and a sterling 2.20 ERA. He struck out 227 batters across 184 innings as both an electric pitcher and a steady hand in the rotation. He enters the season with high expectations at +900 to win the AL Cy Young.
Framber Valdez (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Valdez gets the nod for the Astros, which should come as no surprise now that Justin Verlander is lacing up for the New York Mets. Valdez was superb a year ago, notching a 17-6 record and 2.82 ERA while striking out 194 batters across 201.3 innings. He’ll hope to compete for a Cy Young in 2023 (between +1500 and +2500 in the futures market) and enters the season in fine form after posting a 2.33 ERA in Spring Training.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 22-8-3 in the Astros’ last 33 games against a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros
