The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins begin an early-week series tonight at Yankees Stadium. TWINS.tv and YES have coverage beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET.
The story remains the same for the Yankees as they barely cling to a playoff spot. With two shaky pitchers on the mound, my Twins vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks are looking at some offensive player props for Monday, August 11, with Trevor Larnach leading the way.
Twins vs Yankees prediction
Twins vs Yankees best bet: Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+125)
The story for New York Yankees righty Will Warren has remained the same throughout the year. After a season last year that unfairly painted who he was with an overly inflated ERA, this is a much clearer picture: He’s an average starting pitcher who can get hot with strikeouts from time to time but also has some obvious limitations.
Trevor Larnach can attack those limitations, and I’m grabbing him at a very attractive price to go over his hits/runs/RBIs number of 1.5, a number that BatX projected at a flat 2. It’s easy to see why, as well.
Larnach has never faced Warren, but the peripherals are good.
What jumps out on paper when looking at Warren is his hard-hit rate, which sits in the bottom 20% of the league. The Twins' lineup is top-heavy with three hitters in the top percentile of baseball in hard-hit rate. Not only is Larnach included in that trio, he is also very close in the lineup to the other two — Kody Clemens and Jhonny Pereda.
This increases his opportunity to score runs and head to the plate with runners on base. Simple enough.
While strikeouts can be an issue for Larnach, I’m willing to look past them. He’s improved in this regard over the season and will face a pitching arsenal he profiles well against. I would play this down to my fair projected price of +105.
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Caesars QuickPick: Our Twins vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
We paired Aaron Judge to homer with our best bet. The American League MVP frontrunner hasn’t gone deep since July 23. Zebby Matthews will serve as a fantastic chance to break out of the slump, as he has given up a ton of hard contact all season.
Twins vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota +158 | New York -189
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-135) | New York -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Twins vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.95 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees.
How to watch Twins vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Monday, August 11, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | TWINS.tv, YES |
| Twins starting pitcher | Zebby Matthews (3-3, 5.17 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (6-5, 4.44 ERA) |
Twins vs Yankees latest injuries
Twins vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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