Twins vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

The Minnesota Twins enter play in the midst of a four-game losing skid, over which time they’ve been outscored 16-7.

My Twins vs. Red Sox predictions expect their struggles to continue against a dangerous Boston offense. Let’s take a closer look with my May 3 MLB picks.

Twins vs Red Sox prediction

My Twins vs Red Sox best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-115 at bet365)

The Minnesota Twins have struggled mightily out of the gate, especially away from Target Field. They’ve played 18 road games to date and have won just four of them — two of which came against the 9-23 White Sox. Not a good sign.

Taking the bump Saturday will be Bailey Ober, who owns a solid 3-1 record to date. His counting metrics aren’t too bad but there are red flags in his pitching profile. He's inducing ground balls just 32% of the time, miles below the league average. Opponents are putting the ball in the air against him a lot, which is dangerous when going up against an offense like Boston’s.

Ober is also giving up a ton of hits. He's allowed eight in half of his starts thus far, including each of the last two games. He only conceded one run in those aforementioned two starts but those were against teams ranking 21st and 24th in runs per game. In other terms, offenses that often squander opportunities and fail to cash in runs.

I’m not sure that will be the case against the Boston Red Sox. They rank fifth in runs, sixth in average, sixth in OBP, seventh in slugging, and ninth in homers. They’re also lethal on home soil, where they own the league’s fourth-highest barrel rate against right-handed pitchers.

The Red Sox should be able to provide Hunter Dobbins real run support. Considering he’s excellent in his two starts this season, and the Twins are hitting only .216 on the road, that’ll put them in a great position to win this game.

Twins vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

Red Sox moneyline

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 hits

Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 hits

+225 at bet365

Rafael Devers got off to a miserable start this season but he’s rebounded nicely and is now one of the hottest hitters in baseball.

He enters play riding a seven-game hitting streak, over which time he’s recorded 12 hits and put together four multi-hit performances. Devers has hit for a better average — and a lot more power — against righties than lefties, which works in his favor against Ober.

Wilyer Abreu mashes against right-handed pitchers, hitting .292 with a .270 ISO on the season. It’s also worth noting Ober has conceded a higher batting average against left-handed bats like Abreu (and Devers).

Given the volume of hits Ober is giving up, and the favorable splits, a couple of Boston’s best bats should take center stage this afternoon.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Twins vs Red Sox odds

Twins vs Red Sox live odds

Twins vs Red Sox opening odds

• Moneyline: Minnesota -110 | Boston -110
• Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-200) | Boston -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Twins vs Red Sox trend

The Twins have only cashed the moneyline in four of their last 18 away games (-11.90 units / -55% ROI).  Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Red Sox.

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