The San Diego Padres kept their second-half surge going strong with a 5-3 win over the visiting Minnesota Twins on Monday. They'll hit the field at Petco Park for the second of a three-game set tonight and our Twins vs. Padres predictions are expecting more offense.
Minny will send rolling righty Bailey Ober to the bump to face the red-hot Friars, while San Diego has veteran lefty Martin Perez set to toe the rubber. I break it all down in my MLB picks below.
Twins vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Both the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres enter with rolling offenses and excellent platoon splits for Tuesday’s matchup. The Twins sport a ninth-ranked .325 wOBA against lefties while averaging 5.25 runs across their past eight games, while the Friars rank fourth with a .329 mark against righties while averaging 5.69 runs across their past 13.
Minny starter Bailey Ober also sports a 4.04 ERA on the road compared to his 2.78 home mark and his underlying numbers haven’t been sharp of late.
He's cruised to a 1.59 ERA across his past five starts despite spinning a 4.00 xFIP while allowing a measly .171 BABIP and stranding base runners at an unsustainable 86.8 LOB%. For comparison, he posted 4.14, 3.82, .271, and 71.1% marks through his first 18 starts of the season.
Additionally, San Diego starter Martin Perez will have his first true test with his new club following three layup starts to begin his tenure. The veteran lefty drew the Rockies away from hitter-friendly Coors Field before facing the lackluster offenses of the Marlins and Pirates in his next two outings. There’s also nothing to write home about Perez’s 4.62 ERA and 4.36 xFIP for the season.
I also value both teams trending to the Over in addition to the market moving in that direction across the board. Several shops have already bumped this total to 8.
Twins vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Over 7.5
Royce Lewis 2+ hits + runs + RBI
The Padres have been a force since the All-Star break. They have a 21-6 record and rank fifth with an overall .344 wOBA while striking out the least in baseball (16.0 strikeout rate). It sets up Ober for a tough test, and as noted, he’s already eyeing statistical correction after being incredibly fortunate across his past five starts.
I’m also expecting Perez to have a tough time with the Minny lineup on Tuesday, and third baseman Royce Lewis is the man to target. The 25-year-old star sports an elite .412 wOBA, .288 ISO, and .403 on-base percentage against southpaws, and he's ripe to rebound and capitalize on this plus-matchup after failing to clear this total in each of his past six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Padres odds
Twins vs Padres live odds
Twins vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+145) | San Diego +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -120 | San Diego +100
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Twins vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a notable move to the San Diego side of this moneyline, with Pinnacle opening the Padres at +109 and moving to -103 as of Tuesday morning.
- A similar adjustment has been made at bet365, with San Diego moving from an opening of +100 to -110. Minnesota is also trading at -110.
- As noted, the total has been on the move to the Over. Pinnacle opened with a 7.5 number and has adjusted to an 8-run total.
- FanDuel and bet365 have remained at 7.5, but I suspect they’ll also close at 8. Both shops have the Over 7.5 carrying the higher vig.
Twins vs Padres trend
The Twins have gone Over the total in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.50 units / 18% ROI) and the Padres have done so in 21 of their last 30 home games (+11.05 units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Padres.
Twins vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, SDPA |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.52 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Martin Perez (3-5, 4.62 ERA) |
Twins vs Padres latest injuries
Twins vs Padres weather
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