Twins vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Ryan Shuts Down San Diego

Minnesota is sending their best pitcher to the mound tonight at Petco Park, and we like the value on the Twins at plus money to defeat a San Diego team that is struggling at the plate lately. Read more in our Twins vs. Padres betting picks.

Last Updated: Jul 29, 2022 12:31 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres begin a three-game interleague series at Petco Park on Friday night. Both of these clubs have postseason aspirations, with the Twins sitting atop the AL Central and the Padres having the fifth-best record in the National League.

Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Padres on Friday, July 29.

Twins vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Padres installed as -120 home favorites and the Over/Under at 7.5. Early money has come in on San Diego, shifting the line to between -125 and -130 as of noon ET.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Twins vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 7/29/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Twins vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Friday, July 29, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports

Twins vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Joe Ryan (7-3, 2.89 ERA): The 26-year-old has impressed in his second year as a pro, pitching to a 1.05 WHIP with a .207 OBA through 15 starts. He has allowed exactly one run in each of his last two starts, although he didn't make it out of the sixth inning in either contest.

Blake Snell (2-5, 4.75 ERA): The two-time All-Star has looked shaky this season, pitching to a 1.45 WHIP with a high average exit velocity and a walk rate that ranks among the worst in the majors. He has been much sharper this month, with the exception of a rough outing at Coors Field two weeks ago. In his last start, Snell threw five innings of shutout ball against the Mets last Saturday.

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 5-11 in their last 16 games versus a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Padres

Twins vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Twins are fresh off a two-game set against the Brewers, where they lost both contests, and will look to get back on track against a Padres team that is 10-17 in its last 27 games. The Padres stumbled into the All-Star break and are coming off a series against another AL Central squad where they lost two of three in Detroit. 

The Padres are just 24th in the majors with an OPS of .687, and while that's partially due to the run-suppressing nature of their home field, they also haven't been making good contact. They are just 24th in the majors in barrel rate, have an expected batting average of just .236, and are desperately awaiting the season debut of injured superstar Fernando Tatis Jr.  

With San Diego's lineup having a tough time hitting the ball, they could be in trouble against a starter like Joe Ryan. The Twins' right-hander doesn't have overpowering stuff but tends to induce weak contact and has pitched to an xBA of just .214.

The Padres will respond with veteran Blake Snell who has looked like a shell of his former self this season. While Snell has pitched much better this month, he's still struggling with his control which gets him in trouble even if he doesn't surrender many hits.

The Twins' lineup has sluggers who are patient at the plate, and they are third in the majors in barrel rate while ranking fourth in hard-hit rate. 

The Padres really haven't looked like a playoff team over the last month and have gone just 2-9 when Snell starts this year. I'll back the better-hitting Twins at plus money. 

Prediction: Twins moneyline (+110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The Padres are averaging just 3.54 runs per game at home and could have a tough time generating runs against Ryan, who has allowed just 13 hits and five earned runs in 22 innings this month.

That said, while the Twins have the edge at the dish, they'll also be affected by the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park. They also hit a bit worse against lefthanders like Snell, and the Padres southpaw has generally pitched well this month.

Snell did struggle against the Rockies two weeks ago when he gave up five runs before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning, but that sort of thing can happen at Coors Field. In his other three July starts (which all came against playoff teams), the southpaw has allowed just a pair of runs while fanning 28 batters in 16 innings.

I'm leaning towards the Under here. 

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at Betway)

Best bet

Ryan has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, and he should be in a good spot at Petco against the Padres.

San Diego is plated more than three runs in just six of its last 19 home games, and four of those contests came against a Diamondbacks' squad that has one of the worst rotations in the bigs. 

Twins' manager Rocco Baldelli also tends to keep his starters on a short leash. If Ryan looks like he's starting to get into trouble, Baldelli won't hesitate to take the young pitcher out of the game early. 

Pick: Joe Ryan Under 2.5 earned runs (+120 at BetMGM)

MLB parlays

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