Charlie Morton makes his pitching debut for the Detroit Tigers, and the Philadelphia Phillies send the electric Cristopher Sanchez to the mound in a dynamite Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
My Sunday Night Baseball player props dive deep into the matchup to discover the best value on the board in my Tigers vs. Phillies predictions for August 3.
Tigers vs Phillies Sunday Night Baseball props
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Harper o1.5 H+R+R (-141) -
Baez u0.5 hits (+125) - Kepler o0.5 RBI (+190)
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Tigers vs Phillies props for Sunday Night Baseball
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-141 at Caesars)
If you’re backing Charlie Morton on the mound today, you’re likely doing it under the guise of what he’s done in his career rather than this season.
The trade deadline move to send Morton to the Detroit Tigers gives the 41-year-old a legitimate chance at a late-career World Series. Because of that, he’ll certainly be motivated, but we should also be realistic about what we’ve seen from Morton this season.
He's been rather pedestrian across the board, with poor barrel rate and hard-hit numbers. Enter Bryce Harper.
Harper has had a long history against Morton, and much of that has come during the peak of Morton’s career. That history includes 39 plate appearances with a .414 batting average a nd .621 slugging. The expected metrics that back up that success, too.
It stands to reason that if Harper has had success against Morton at his best, he should certainly have success against this version of Morton. My projections made the fair price on this number -162, so I’ll happily lay -140.
Javier Baez Under 0.5 hits (+125 at Caesars)
This is a pretty rough matchup for Javier Baez. Shall we count the ways?
Baez is a high ground-ball hitter. He’ll come into this game with a ground-ball rate near 40%, which places him in the Top 5% of qualified hitters. That’s a problem when facing a pitcher who rates in the 98th percentile of baseball in induced ground balls in Cristopher Sanchez.
Baez has become more strikeout-prone as the years have gone on, and this year is no exception. That’s bad news against Sanchez, who has an elite amount of swing-and-miss stuff.
The pitching arsenal could be an issue for Baez. The sinker and changeup-heavy approach figures to give him issues, as he has below-average numbers across the board against such pitches. All of these factors combine to make the +125 price appealing.
Max Kepler Over 0.5 RBI (+190 at Caesars)
My attention was drawn to this prop by THE BAT X on our MLB prop projections page, which made it one of the top values of the matchup. Once I dug into the metrics, a lot of the same things that drove the Harper play also drove this.
Outside of Kyle Schwarber and Harper, nobody else in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup is hitting the ball harder than Max Kepler these days. He’s made a substantial improvement in his barrel rate compared to last season, with the number near 15% entering today.
Like Harper, this keys in on an issue with Morton, who has given up far too many barreled hits this season, increasing the likelihood that Kepler could record an RBI all by himself.
In addition to that, Kepler is surrounded in the lineup by hitters who have good historical numbers against Morton.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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