The Detroit Tigers will be without ace Tarik Skubal for the foreseeable future, as the two-time AL Cy Young award winner is set to undergo surgery to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow.
Before the injury designation, the left-hander was the presumptive favorite to win a third straight American League Cy Young.
With Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet already on the shelf, Skubal's lengthy absence sends the AL Cy Young odds into chaos.
Latest AL Cy Young odds following Skubal injury
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Cam Schlittler |
+250 |
| Max Fried |
+350 |
 Dylan Cease |
+500 |
 Jose Soriano |
+600 |
 Jacob deGrom |
+1200 |
 Gavin Williams |
+2500 |
 Bryan Woo |
+2500 |
| Kevin Gausman |
+2500 |
| George Kirby |
+3000 |
 Drew Rasmussen |
+3500 |
 Framber Valdez |
+3500 |
| Logan Gilbert |
+4500 |
| Parker Messick |
+4500 |
 Taj Bradley |
+4500 |
Odds from FanDuel, one of our best betting sites, as of 5-4.
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What Skubal's injury means to Cy Young race
With Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal likely on the shelf for the next couple of months, the AL Cy Young race is suddenly wide open and very interesting. Tigers fans may not find much solace in that, though.
New York Yankees duo Cam Schlittler and Max Fried have immediately leapt to the front of the line at +250 and +350, respectively. Schlittler has been borderline untouchable in his first full MLB season, going 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 31.4% strikeout rate compared to a 3.8% walk rate. The 25-year-old has earned his status as the favorite, perhaps even had Skubal not been sidelined.
Fried has been quite effective, though in a much different way, with a 2.39 ERA and a 21.4% strikeout rate, relying more on inducing soft contact than blowing hitters away.
Outside the Bronx, Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jose Soriano and Toronto Blue Jays newcomer Dylan Cease are both shorter than +1000 and have seen their odds improve significantly with Skubal going under the knife.
Fourteen pitchers are drawing odds shorter than 50/1, showing how crowded the field is with Skubal and Garrett Crochet hurt, and someone like Kansas City Royals left-hander Cole Ragans (+6000) struggling.
AL Cy Young pick to make now
Pick: Dylan Cease (+500 at FanDuel)
I don't love the landscape right now. Schlittler is probably a good option, but he's also at least somewhat unproven as a sophomore starter, and +220 is too short relative to the risk involved.
Similarly, Fried's tendency to pitch to contact will inflate his numbers at some point.
You may lean more toward Soriano at slightly longer odds, but he's vastly outpitching his career norms and his peripherals. I fear regression is coming for him.
So, I'm settling on Cease. He pitches for a team that should be in the mix for a playoff spot with World Series odds of +2500, has more strikeouts than any other pitcher in MLB since 2021, has consistently logged a ton of innings, and is finally pitching in front of a top-tier defense that will help keep his ERA down. I'd like the line to be a bit higher, but none of the long shots inspire much confidence at the moment.
What this means for Skubal
Only a few short months ago, Skubal won his arbitration case against the Tigers to earn a record $32-million salary in 2026. He hasn't agreed to an extension and is slated to hit free agency at season's end.
A third straight Cy Young award would have resulted in an unfathomably huge contract, and while he will almost certainly get paid an absurd amount of money to the layman, this injury puts the ceiling of a potential deal in at least some doubt.
Whether that means a short-term pillow deal with opt-out clauses and a high annual salary or a deep-pocketed (*cough* Dodgers *cough*) team saying "screw it" and giving him the deal he desired in the first place, remains to be seen. That it's not Tommy John surgery should at least curb some concern, especially if he finishes strong and healthy down the stretch.
One other wrinkle is what happens if the Tigers fall out of the race? At 18-17, Detroit is tied for the AL Central lead, but is also only three games ahead of the last-place Minnesota Twins. Skubal, injured or not, would definitely be the most sought-after player at the trade deadline if he were to become available.
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