A slate full of struggling pitchers take the mound this evening, headlined by Merrill Kelly's recent slump on the bump.
Let's take a look at who joins him in my three favorite MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks and MLB picks from Thursday’s slate on July 9.
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Nathan Eovaldi |
Over 7.5 Strikeouts | +125 |
 Merrill Kelly |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | +132 |
 Brady Singer |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | -153 |
Strikeout prop: Nathan Eovaldi Over 7.5 strikeouts (+125)
With MacKenzie Gore going over for us last night but failing to cash the ladder, the amount of opportunities he had makes me like Nathan Eovaldi to shove this evening.
Does that correlate? Who knows, but the Los Angeles Angels are still one of the highest strikeout teams in baseball.
Over their last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, six Angels hitters own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with four of those hitters sitting at 33.3% or higher.
Eovaldi has posted a 29.51% strikeout rate over his last five starts. Across his last 90 batters faced, he owns a 33.1% called strikes plus whiffs rate and a 17.2% swinging strike rate.
This is a great spot for another strikeout pitcher to go over his prop against one of the most swing-happy teams in baseball.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, ABTV
Strikeout prop: Merrill Kelly Under 3.5 strikeouts
Coming into today, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on Batters-Box, including the lowest matchup strikeout rate. His trends in poorly rated spots are also very appealing.
Across 17 poorly rated games, Kelly has stayed under 4 strikeouts 47% of the time. In six games this season with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate, he has stayed under this prop 66.67% of the time.
Over his last 5 starts, Kelly's strikeout rate has remained below 13%, and on the road this season, that number drops to 10.34%.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SDPA, ARID
Earned Runs prop: Brady Singer Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-153)
After the Cincinnati Reds put up nearly two touchdowns last night, I fully expect the Phillies to come back with a chip on their shoulder and return the favor.
Brady Singer draws a fully elite rated Phillies lineup over on Batters-Box, that features three elite rated hitters and two more with strong ratings. The wildest part about those three elite bats? They all own at least 57.6% arsenal coverage against Singer’s pitch mix.
On top of that, the Philadelphia Phillies have been swinging a hot bat as a team, posting a 111 wRC+, .332 wOBA, and .167 ISO over their last 12 games. With me already expecting Philadelphia’s star hitters to bounce back this evening, I think this is a strong spot to fade Singer.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, NBCSP
- Prop picks: 282-526, -15.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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