It's a rainy Monday, and one of the few things keeping me optimistic as the summer days wind down is the value on pitcher strikeouts and MLB player props today.
Bryce Elder has a high-K-rate matchup at home vs. the Giants, Will Dion is making his first start — where bettors can take advantage of his punchout market — and Tanner Gordon is not getting deep with his leash at home, where he gets pummeled.
Find out why these are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug.31.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Bryce Elder |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +133 |
 Will Dion |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | -113 |
 Tanner Gordon |
Under 15.5 outs | -114 |
Strikeout prop: Bryce Elder Over 4.5 strikeouts (+134)
Pricing is doing the heavy lifting, per usual, with the best projected Over K prop on the board today. Bryce Elder is getting a 100-pitch leash these days and working deep into games, recording 18+ outs in all but one of his last seven starts since the All-Star break.
The projection is 89 pitches and 4.35 Ks, but that might be conservative. If he gets to 95+ pitches today, that K projection could move above 4.5 — making this a good buy at even money or better. At the current projection, the fair price is around +110 to +115.
The Giants are not a threatening offense and own the third-worst K rate over the last two weeks at 26.7%, with that number being even worse on the road.
Six innings and five Ks at this high price is not a tough ask. Also, who doesn't want action on the first game of the day? This was my first bet of the day.
- Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, NBCS-Bay Area
Strikeout prop: Will Dion Over 3.5 strikeouts (-113)
It's that time of the baseball season when it's tough for the books to project pitchers with serious question marks, and that includes Will Dion.
Dion is a lefty who has been pitching in a bulk-relief role and has yet to start a game this year. He got up to 56 pitches in his last appearance, so 70 pitches is on the table today.
He currently projects for 3.71 Ks on just 65 pitches, leaving plenty of room for him to outperform that projection.
The Washington starter just had four strikeouts against the Marlins two games ago on just 48 pitches and nine total outs. He's better than a K-per-inning pitcher and struck out seven batters on 64 pitches earlier this month, so those alt Overs are well within his range of outcomes today.
With a slight chance of rain (23%), though, I'll stick with the main-market Over. The fair price on a 70-pitch leash is -135.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Marlins.TV
Pitcher out prop: Tanner Gordon Under 15.5 outs (-114)
There is nothing wrong with betting a pitcher Under his outs prop at Coors Field.
Tanner Gordon would rather not pitch at home, as his ERA is more than five points higher at altitude than on the road. He was recently moved back into a starter role after losing it and threw his second-highest pitch total of the season at 90 in his last game.
This is a pitcher who hasn't consistently been given a 90-pitch leash as a starter.
He's 5-2 to the Under on this number as a starter and has gone 75, 74, 94, and 82 pitches in his four home starts this year. His bullpen is also fresh, with just one arm used yesterday.
The Orioles are a Top 10 slugging team over the last two weeks and could easily send a fringe starter like Gordon to the showers early. The projection is 83 pitches and 14.76 outs, giving us plenty of room to attack this Under.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, MASN
- Prop picks: 26-21, +7.61 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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