It was a 2-1 SU day here yesterday after easily hitting an Over 1.5 K prop and fading Max Meyer. The Cubs blew the betting sweep vs. the Rockies but today's another chance to sweep the board and it’s a getaway day with just four games on deck tomorrow.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Wednesday, May 28.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 28
Cameron u16.5 outs (+100)
Gallen u17.5 outs (+145)
McCullers o15.5 outs (+122)
Today's SP best bets
Reds vs. Royals
The angle: This rookie pitcher does not have a long leash and has been very lucky so far in MLB
The move: Noah Cameron Under 16.5 outs (+100 at bet365)
Kansas City Royals rookie Noah Cameron has been more than lucky across his first three starts. He currently owns a .102 BABIP, which can’t last much longer. However, the big angle is his leash.
He has yet to throw more than 82 pitches and went longer than this total just once across seven Triple-A starts. THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches and 15.3 outs vs. a Cincinnati Reds offense that can make pitchers uncomfortable with its ability to swipe bags.
Another edge here is with the weather. This game projects dry to start, per Kevin Roth, but is expected to get wet later, which could shorten his start even further.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks
The angle: Gallen is a very inefficient pitcher and this price is big
The move: Zac Gallen Under 17.5 outs (+145 at DraftKings)
This is a big plus-money price for an Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher struggling to get deep thanks to some terrible walk numbers.
Zac Gallen has pitched 61+ innings this year but has also issued 29 free passes. This has led to multiple walks in nine straight starts. He's also failed to record 18 outs in three straight. That includes a 100-pitch outing vs. St. Louis in his last start where he walked four.
THE BAT is projecting 17.3 outs, making this about a coin flip but at good money. There are some bats in this Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that can do some damage and Oneil Cruz hits righties much harder with a .967 OPS this year. I’d play this to +115 today with my MLB picks.
Athetics vs. Astros
The angle: McCullers pitch count is ramped up after starting off the season with restrictions
The move: Lance McCullers Over 15.5 outs (+122 at FanDuel)
The market is going this way as Over 15.5 outs is as short as -104 at Pinnacle for Houston Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr.
He will be making his fifth start of the season and although he has not gone more than 13 outs, he ran his pitch count up to 91 pitches last turn, so he should have no restrictions today.
He gets a home start vs. a bad Athletics offense on a getaway day. He struck out eight batters seven days ago and his .342 BABIP might indicate some bad luck with balls in play. His walk rate is also three points higher than his career average while his K% should start to trend upwards.
It’s a great spot on a low total in a good matchup. THE BAT is projecting 16.3 outs on just 88 pitches, which might even be conservative.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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