The summer heat might be starting to fade, but betting value on the mound is still going strong. With innings limits, unfamiliar arms, cost-conscious organizations, and playoff implications all in play, there are still plenty of angles to exploit.
Here are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers for Tuesday, August 19.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 19
Teng o2.5 Earned Runs (-110)
Miller o1.5 Walks Allowed (+100)
Hendricks u5.5 Hits Allowed (+105)
Giants vs. Padres
The angle: The Padres just saw and tagged Teng — expect more of the same
The move: Kai-Wei Teng Over 2.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Kai-Wei Teng looked sharp in his first MLB start this year, but reality hit hard in his last outing when he allowed 7 earned runs on 4 hits and 4 walks — against this same San Diego Padres lineup. Now he faces them again, this time on the road.
Pitchers tend to struggle in back-to-back starts against the same opponent as hitters gain familiarity — similar to the "third time through the order" effect. While Teng’s pitch count is a concern, if he reaches around 70 pitches, I like San Diego's chances of doing damage, given his command issues and the tough matchup.
THE BAT has Teng giving up 2.86 earned runs over 81 pitches.
Mariners vs. Phillies
The angle: Miller's command has been hampered by injuries, and there could be an IBB issued today
The move: Bryce Miller Over 1.5 walks allowed (+100 at bet365)
Bryce Miller returns to the Seattle Mariners’ rotation after a two-month absence due to injury, and I’m targeting his control issues right out of the gate. He's issued 23 walks in just over 48 innings this season — well above his career rate — and I’m not confident those command issues are fully resolved.
He threw 76 pitches in his final Triple-A rehab start, so we could see him stretch to 85 pitches here. He’s also facing a Philadelphia Phillies offense that just put up a playoff-style performance, and even a potential intentional walk to Bryce Harper (who hit two homers last game) could contribute.
THE BAT has Miller at 1.74 walks on 84 pitches.
Reds vs. Angels
The angle: Hendricks' short leash makes 6+ hits allowed a tough argument
The move: Kyle Hendricks Under 5.5 hits allowed (+105 at bet365)
Kyle Hendricks has been below average overall (near-5.00 ERA over his last 8 starts), but this line is too high given how short his leash has been. Despite allowing about a hit per inning, he's gone Under this number in 5 of his last 7 starts, thanks to limited usage.
He’s thrown more than 82 pitches just once in his last eight outings and is averaging only 74 pitches per start in that span. The Cincinnati Reds’ offense is far more dangerous at home than on the road, and a lot needs to go right for them to rack up six hits off a short-leashed Hendricks.
THE BAT is projecting 5.59 hits allowed on 86 pitches, which I think is still a high pitch projection.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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