It’s a Tuesday card and it’s time to get back in the swing of things with the schedule four games past the All-Star break.
I already dropped four pitcher props this morning on Covers’ MLB Best Bets, but there are still a handful of plays to add.
These are my three favorite pitcher props for Tuesday, July 22.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 22
Scherzer o15.5 outs (+145)
Boyd to record win (+100)
Cabrera o4.5 Ks (-105)
Yankees vs. Jays
The angle: Scherzer's leash is growing and the Yankees' lineup might be more defense-oriented today.
The move: Max Scherzer Over 15.5 outs (+145 at bet365)
I’m playing this to +120.
Max Scherzer is getting up for this game. The Jays have won a franchise-record 11 straight games at home, and his offense is facing Cam Schlittler. The New York offense might be going more defensive, as well, after a bad game in the field last night.
The 40-year-old starter went 18 outs in his last start and has had 11 days to recover. He threw 90 pitches in that July 11 outing and seems to have pushed past the five-inning limitation that might have been in place.
The Jays have also ridden their bullpen hard this season, and anything more than 15 outs will go a long way for these relievers.
THE BAT is projecting 15.5 outs on 89 pitches, so the plus-money is the deciding factor here. He is also a solid +235 to record the win.
Royals vs. Cubs
The angle: The Cubs are massive faves and Boyd is efficient.
The move: Matthew Boyd to record win (+100 at bet365)
The Cubs and Matthew Boyd are big -245 home favorites vs. the Royals, who will be starting 45-year-old Rich Hill.
Boyd has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year, getting the win in 10 of his 19 starts and owning a 1.28 ERA since May 28 (nine starts).
The Cubs have dropped two in a row but still have the best run differential in baseball and the second-highest scoring offense to support Boyd.
Hill has no props to fade, but this might be the best angle to do so. Hill has not gone more than 25 pitches or four outs in the minors, so this will be a bullpen game for a team with the No. 18 ERA and No. 20 WAR bullpen over the last 30 days.
Padres vs. Marlins
The angle: Cabrera has been an Over machine and can get this across the line even with an abbreviated outing.
The move: Edward Cabrera Over 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)
I’m going against the projections here as Edward Cabrera has gone Over this number in 10 straight starts and has totaled 60 Ks in just 53 innings across that stretch. He might not get to 18 outs, but five Ks in five innings is a safe floor.
The part that is worrisome is that he experienced elbow discomfort in his last start, but he's had 11 days to recover and there might not be any restrictions. The comforting thing is that he had six punchouts in four innings over 76 pitches in that start.
Across this 11-game Over streak, he has thrown 87 or fewer pitches five times. He can pile up Ks even in an abbreviated start. He's also hit this Over vs. many other teams in the Bottom-10 in K%, which the Padres are.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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