I’m back on Monday, and that means I get to take a look at the Monday board, which has a ton of travel, some six-man rotations, and all the other pitcher edges and angles that come in the final stretch of the season.
These are my favorite MLB player props and pitcher props for Monday, August 25.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 25
Rodriguez u17.5 outs (-105)
Oviedo o4.5 strikeouts (-105)
Sugano u5.5 hits allowed (+110)
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
The angle: It's a tough road matchup for a great offense vs. a pitcher who typically doesn't go 18 outs or 95+ pitches
The move: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 17.5 outs (-105 at Caesars)
The Arizona Diamondbacks lefty has a tough start vs. the Milwaukee Brewers on the road, and making it even more difficult has been an easy run of opponents that is overinflating his recent form.
Eduardo Rodriguez has seen the Rockies twice, the Athletics, and the Guardians in his last four games. He still only went Over this total twice in that stretch and gave up 12 runs over 24 innings with a 17:12 K:BB rate.
He is also giving up well over a hit per inning on the road (79 hits allowed across 61+ innings), and the Brewers' bats are the No.5 offense vs. left-handed pitching and rank as the No.1 team in wRC+ over the last 30 days.
E-Rod is not a triple-digit pitcher, and THE BAT is projecting 16.3 outs on 91 pitches.
Pirates vs. Cardinals
The angle: St. Louis is a great matchup today for a pitcher who is tough to price because of just two starts this year
The move: Johan Oviedo Over 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at Caesars)
Johan Oviedo made his first start with the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 4th, but was not good, throwing 43 pitches in the first inning and striking out three. He then had a massive bounce-back game, going 15 outs against the Jays, striking out six on 75 pitches. That's nine of 18 outs via the punchout. He could see that pitch count run to 85 today, and five innings and five punchouts is a safe floor.
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming back from two series in Florida, so there could be some sleepy bats for an offense striking out at a Top-10 rate over the last 30 days.
Oviedo had 37 Ks in the minors in 27 innings, and he has K/inning stuff when he is on. His ceiling today is seven or eight punchouts. I love this spot for him — even on the road.
Red Sox vs. Orioles
The angle: Sugano is in great form, is a short-leash pitcher, and gets a team coming off Sunday Night Baseball
The move: Tomoyuki Sugano Under 5.5 hits allowed (+110 at Caesars)
I’ve lost money trying to fade the Baltimore Orioles starter, but he is in great form and beating good offenses. He also gets a Sunday Night Baseball opponent at home, which is a great spot.
Tomoyuki Sugano has gone Under this number in five straight games and has seen Boston, Seattle, and the Cubs in that stretch. He just held the Red Sox to five hits and no earned runs and only threw 85 pitches.
His leash is not long, even when he is on, and he comes into tonight’s matchup averaging 88 pitches per start over his last 10 games.
The Boston offense is in a let-down spot after a huge series vs. the Yankees and a poor offensive showing in the standalone prime-time game last night.
THE BAT is projecting just 84 pitches today, and I’d buy this to -110.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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