The MLB betting board has been kind to me this week as we enter Friday's action with a 9-2 SU record for +8.14 units.
The theme for tonight's MLB player props is "Under" as I back three completely different pitcher markets
Find out who I'm rolling with for Friday, May 2.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 2
Bassitt u17.5 outs (+125)
Pepiot u5.5 strikeouts (-114)
Logan Allen u5.5 hits allowed (+120)
Today's SP best bets
Guardians vs. Jays
The angle: The Jays are keeping pitch counts down
The move: Chris Bassitt Under 17.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
I thought Jose Berrios would have gotten a long leash last night because the Toronto Blue Jays used a bullpen day on Wednesday, but John Schneider kept yesterday’s starter to 88 pitches despite pitching into the seventh. That pitch-count management could be on display again today with Chris Bassitt, who has hit this Under in four straight starts.
The Toronto right-hander projects for 97 pitches and 16.83 outs, per THE BAT. That seems to be on the high end of the projections, as Bassitt is averaging 90 pitches per start over his last five games.
The Cleveland Guardians are a team that strikes out at a low rate and can drive up the pitch count. The Jays' bullpen also only ate seven outs yesterday, so it is fresh. Bassitt’s Over 1.5 walks at -115 projects very well, too.
Rays vs. Yankees
The angle: Pepiot saw the Yankees two starts ago and doesn't pitch past the sixth
The move: Ryan Pepiot Under 5.5 strikeouts (-114 at BetRivers)
Ryan Pepiot projects for 5.14 Ks on 88 pitches in a tough road start vs. the New York Yankees, whom he saw just two starts ago. The advantage goes to the hitters when batters face the same pitcher over a short period of time. Let’s call it the familiarity factor, just like guys usually have terrible numbers the fourth time through an order.
The Tampa Bay Rays starter doesn’t go more than 18 outs, either. He threw just 75 pitches in his last start and was stopped after six innings. He is a K/inning pitcher who has worse numbers on the road. It is going to be sweaty, but Yankee Stadium has good hitting conditions with wind blowing out, and getting knocked around is in the path of outcomes.
Guardians vs. Jays
The angle: The Jays are an easy matchup, and a bad start has blown up this total
The move: Logan Allen Under 5.5 hits allowed (+120 at bet365)
This is a big price on the highest total that this prop gets. I have not seen a bigger price on this number, and that it’s against the light-hitting Blue Jays is just perfect.
Logan Allen projects for 5.5 hits allowed on 88 pitches, making this better than a 50% win rate, per THE BAT Projection.
The Cleveland starter got rocked in his last start, allowing nine hits, but he had gone Under this total in three straight starts, giving up just 11 hits in 17 innings.
This is a buy to even money for me in my final MLB pick of the day.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
