The Chicago Cubs will continue their bid for a postseason berth as they host the Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon.
The Cubs (79-74) are tied for the final wild card spot in the National League. The Rockies (56-96) have the worst record in the NL, and today’s MLB odds make them significant underdogs in Chicago.
Both teams are starting pitchers who have been giving up runs in bunches this year. We’ll look at how that impacts today’s matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rockies vs. Cubs on September 22.
Rockies vs Cubs odds
Rockies vs Cubs predictions
While Davis made one appearance last year, the 26-year-old is still a rookie and has been splitting time between the bullpen and the starting rotation this year. To put it lightly, those outings haven’t gone well for the young righty. He has compiled an ugly 9.58 ERA over 20 2/3 innings of work, and Davis is allowing an alarming rate of nearly 14 hits per nine innings. That, along with allowing 4.4 walks per nine innings, has led to his WHIP ballooning to 2.032.
Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon isn’t having a productive year in his first year with the Chicago Cubs. The right-hander's war sits at -0.8 and his ERA has ballooned over 5.00 for the first time in his career.
Taillon is allowing more home runs than he ever has before, having already matched his career high by giving up 26 longballs on the season.
It’s hard to imagine these pitchers putting up much resistance early on in this game. Things may not get much better when we get into the bullpens, especially on Colorado’s side. The Rockies have an MLB-worst bullpen ERA of 5.28, meaning there’s not much backup available to support Davis once his day is done.
It’s tempting to just take the Cubs here, but with Taillon on the mound, this could be a wild game in both directions. Instead, I’m looking at the total, which has been set at a surprisingly reasonable nine runs.
With two struggling arms taking the mound, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that total hit early at Wrigley.
My best bet: Over 9 runs (+100 at PointsBet)
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Rockies vs Cubs same-game parlay
I’m expecting a lot of runs today, especially at Davis’ expense. That forms the basis of a same-game parlay with significant value on this afternoon’s game. We’ll start by taking the Over at a slightly higher 9.5 runs, as I’m hardly afraid to add the hook in this one.
Next, we’ll take the Cubs on the moneyline. As I said above, I fully expect the Cubs to win this one, though it could be a wild affair.
With the expectation that Chicago will score a lot of runs off Davis, I’m also picking Cody Bellinger to pick up an RBI. Not only is Bellinger placed at the heart of the Cubs lineup, but he’s a lefty with power who will get some great opportunities to hit off of an overmatched right-hander.
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Rockies vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened today’s game as a significant -208 favorite. However, the public hasn’t shown much confidence in the Rockies at that number, as the consensus line is now Cubs -225. You can find -220 on Chicago at some sites, while +188 is the best number being offered out there on the Rockies.
The Rockies have been a complete and utter failure this year, losing more than 11 units on the moneyline for bettors. The Cubs are hanging around even but are currently down 2.5 units in 2023.
It’s impossible to recommend that the Rockies can win this game. Taillon isn’t a good pitcher, but the Cubs have a far better lineup and Davis has no business pitching in MLB games right now. Throw in the fact that the Cubs are in the thick of a pennant race and are playing at home, and I’m leaning toward the Cubs.
Today’s total was set at nine runs flat, and that number hasn’t budged as of early Friday. You can find even money on the Over, but -105 is also out there on the Under, meaning there’s good value somewhere no matter which side you like.
The Rockies have primarily played below their listed O/U, with the Under going 80-70 in their games. The Cubs are very close to neutral against the total, with the Over holding a 75-73 edge on the season.
With this pitching matchup, I have to back the Over. Both lineups are capable and neither Davis nor Taillon have shown the ability to slow down opponents this season.
Trend to know
The game total has reached 14 runs or more in each of Davis’ last two starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Cubs
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Rockies vs Cubs game info
|Location:||Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL|
|Date:||Friday, September 22, 2023|
|First pitch:||2:20 p.m. ET|
Noah Davis (0-2, 9.58 ERA): An 11th-round draft pick by Cincinnati in 2018, Davis spent most of this year pitching in AAA with a 4.50 ERA in 14 starts. The situation has been far worse in limited work in the majors, where his WHIP is sitting at a hefty 2.032. Davis’ last appearance was probably the best of his MLB career, as he held San Francisco hitless in two innings of relief work on September 17.
Jameson Taillon (7-10, 5.27 ERA): There’s no sugarcoating it: Taillon has been a massive disappointment for the Cubs this season. After two solid years with the Yankees, Chicago thought they were getting a reliable veteran arm that they could slot in the middle of their rotation. Instead, Taillon has posted some of the worst peripheral numbers of his career. Taillon last pitched on September 13, giving up five runs (three earned) in five innings against Colorado.
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