The Chicago Cubs hope to figure things out and get back on track when they host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field tonight.
Justin Steele is seeking his first win and is coming off his best start of the season, but Chicago has just one victory in their last nine games.
The Reds will turn to Hunter Greene to try and continue their surge (5-2 last seven games), and Tyler Stephenson looks poised to provide run support, as I explain in my MLB picks and Reds vs. Cubs predictions for Saturday, June 1.
Reds vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It’s not often you have a matchup where a hitter has double-digit plate appearances against a pitcher and is hitting .700, but that’s exactly what Tyler Stephenson has done to Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele. In 11 meetings all-time, the Cincinnati Reds catcher has made Steele’s life miserable.
And it’s not just the fact that he’s got seven hits in those 11 appearances that has me backing Stephenson to rack up 2+ hits, runs, and RBI on Saturday night. It’s the fact that in those 11 plate appearances, he’s driven in six runs, walked once, and struck out just once.
Steele isn’t having the best season, rocking a 4.45 ERA after a rough May. He posted a 4.88 ERA on the month in large part because he gave up six homers in just 27 2/3 innings. He’s also got an ERA of 4.86 at Wrigley Field this season, where he’s allowed nine earned runs in just 16 2/3 on the mound.
When you look at Stephenson’s splits, this play gets even more attractive. He’s hitting 67 points higher away from home with a .288 average and a .816 OPS. The latter is over 100 points higher than what he’s posted at Great American Ball Park.
His recent performances bear that out. The Reds are coming off a seven-game homestand in which he notched just two hits in 23 ABs. He was hitting the ball well in the road games prior to that, and immediately got back in the groove on Friday night with two hits, a walk, and an RBI in four appearances.
Stephenson is also hitting just .167 in day games, but that balloons up to .287 when the floodlights are shining. His SLG at night is almost 400 points higher than the daytime, as well.
I was shocked to see this prop available at even money given the history, but I’ll gladly take it. Stephenson ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in exit velo, barrel rate, and hard-hit % and is facing a pitcher whose hard-hit % is in the Bottom 15th percentile. Stephenson should have a productive night for both the Reds and bettors alike.
Reds vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Cody Bellinger 1+ hits
Elly De La Cruz 2+ strikeouts
Cody Bellinger has faced Hunter Greene on four occasions in his career and reached base each time. He’s got three hits and a walk with a homer and three RBI. Bellinger went 0-for-5 last night, ending a multi-hit streak at four games and six-game overall hitting streak. Look for him to get back on the horse here.
Elly De La Cruz had a rough night as well, going 0-for-4 with a walk and three strikeouts. It’s his fourth straight road game with multiple strikeouts, and away games haven’t been kind to the second-year phenom.
De La Cruz is hitting just .202 away from Great American Ball Park and is coming off a month of May where he hit .208 and struck out 40 times in 101 AB. Toss in the fact that Steele has faced him three times and set him down on strikes each time, and you’ve got a strong recipe for another multi-K outing for Elly.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Cubs odds
Reds vs Cubs live odds
Reds vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +120 | Chicago -130
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Reds vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs are -134 on the moneyline after opening at -130. While they’re under .500 for the season, they’re 15-12 at home while the Reds are 11-15 on the road.
- There’s value on the Reds here. They’ve got the better pitcher going, and the Cubs are hitting just .216 over their last 10 while going 2-8 overall.
- The total of 7 sees the Over favored at -118 or more. You can get plus odds nearly everywhere on the Under.
- Last night’s 5-4 win ended a run of five straight Unders for the Reds, while the Over has now cashed in each of Chicago’s last four overall.
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Reds vs Cubs trend
The Reds have hit the moneyline in five of their last seven games for +3.95 units and a +48% ROI. Find more Reds vs Cubs betting trends.
Reds vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Hunter Greene (3-2, 3.06 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-2, 4.45 ERA) |
Reds vs Cubs latest injuries
Reds vs Cubs weather
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