Coming off a 20-run performance yesterday, the Chicago Cubs and their 9-2 SU run over their last 11 games host the Cincinnati Reds in the third of a four-game set at a windy Wrigley today. MLB odds have Drew Smyly as a -145 favorite vs. Brandon Williamson with a total of 10.5
With Elly De La Cruz leading off and striking out at 34%, should bettors be backing an undervalued Smyly tonight in the strikeout department?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Reds vs. Cubs for Wednesday, August 2.
Reds vs Cubs odds
Reds vs Cubs predictions
Chicago Cubs lefty Drew Smyly might have lost his rotation spot briefly, but his strikeout stuff never went missing. Even in his two piggyback outings, he managed a 31% CSW rate with a 65% strike rate. The key part there was that he also saw the same offense twice which usually benefits the hitters, but the crafty lefty piled up 11 Ks vs. the Cards in just eight innings of work.
Now with a projected full leash and the MLB weather report indicating heavy winds blowing out, Smyly is going to rely on more of his swing-and-miss stuff vs. the Cincinnati Reds who struck out at the eighth-highest rate in July (25%). THE BAT is projecting 97 pitches and 6.01 punchouts, so the Over 5.5 at +120 is showing over 11% of difference vs. the implied number.
Smyly has also been more comfortable at Wrigley with his stuff posting a 9.2 K/9 at home vs. a 7.1 K/9 on the road. The ERA is higher at home, but the K% is up which is what I’m most worried about today.
Elly De La Cruz has 27 Ks over his last 59 at-bats, Matt McLain has a 42% K% over his last week, and rookie Christian Encarnacion-Strand has a 32% K% over his last seven games. There are some holes in these younger Cincinnati bats and with the right-handed hitters wanting to use that double-digit wind blowing out to left, the swings could be a little more aggressive leading to more misses for Smyly.
The last 10 starting pitchers that have faced the Reds have totaled 51 strikeouts over 45-plus innings including five pitchers who recorded at least six. All five starters who managed to record at least 18 outs had at least six Ks, as well.
Brandon Williamson Under 15.5 outs at -125 also projects well.
My best bet: Drew Smyly Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120 at FanDuel)
Reds vs Cubs same-game parlay
Smyly Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
Smyly to record the win (+195)
Williamson Over 2.5 earned runs (-140)
Smyly should get to face Cruz three times which hopefully he can parlay into two punchouts. The Reds have been swinging and missing more and with a longer leash now that he has rejoined the rotation, Smyly should get his K/inning today with a full pitch count.
With a total of 10.5, runs are expected and the Cubs' offense has been fun to back over the last 30-plus days as it has hit the team total Over in 28 of its last 45 games, good for a 21% ROI.
The Cubs are shorter on the F5 ML indicating the edge they have in starting pitching but I'm comfortable with their final three pitchers who aren't named Michael Fulmer meaning Smyly could get his 15-plus innings and take the team's 10th win in 13 games.
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Reds vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
After splitting the first two games of the series, the surging Cubs (9-2 SU last 11, and 12-6 SU since the break) opened as -155 home favorites but have seen that shorten up to -145. They currently sit four games back of the Reds for the division lead but are also the only team in the NL Central to have a positive run differential.
This is the best offense in the division and it could be flexing its muscle today at Wrigley vs. Brandon Williamson and the winds of the North Side.
Tonight’s setting will have strong 11.5-mph winds blowing straight out to left field which could be compounded by Cincinatti’s flyball pitcher, Williamson. THE BAT is projecting 3.17 earned runs over just 14 outs. The rookie right-hander is also dealing with walk issues (14 over his last 27-plus innings) which Chicago could expose as it is the No.4 BB% team in baseball.
The Cubs were one of the best offenses in July which is something the younger Reds can’t say as they finished 24th in WAR and 21st in wRC+. Elly De La Cruz has cooled off and hitting just .203 over his last 15 games with a 42% K%.
The Reds are 6-4 SU in their last four but are also on the end of a grueling 10-game road trip. Although the ML is moving towards the Reds, I think Smyly is a better pitcher than is being priced while Williamson is a worse pitcher than his numbers show.
With the total climbing, I’m happy backing the better and deeper offense at -145 or better. The first-5 ML at -155 for the Cubs is indicating Chicago has the advantage early, but I’m confident in Julian Merryweather, Al Leiter Jr., and Adbert Alzolay in the final three frames to close it out.
With the total moving to 10.5, I’m off the Over but if I could find a 10, I would strongly consider the Over. This number opened at 9.5 before the Wrigley winds inflated it.
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Trend to know
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs
Reds vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Williamson (3-2, 4.48 ERA): Williamson is making his 14th start in his rookie season and has a 48/27 K:BB rate over 64-plus innings with 10 home runs allowed. He averages just 81 pitches per start, is a flyball pitcher, and owns 5.23 xFIP. He allowed 12 baserunners over 17 outs in his last start and the Reds are 9-4 SU when he starts. THE BAT projects 82 pitches, 14 outs, 3.47 strikeouts, and 3.17 earned runs.
Drew Smyly (8-7, 4.50 ERA): Smyly is making his first start since piggybacking an opener in his last two outings. He had a 9.35 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in his four starts prior to the demotion but owns a 97/37 K:BB rate over 108 innings with 18 home runs allowed. His expected metrics are better than his actuals and he’s a league-average pitcher that has decent strikeout numbers this year. The Cubs are 11-10 when he pitches and THE BAT is projecting 97 pitches, 17.5 outs, 6.01 strikeouts, and 2.73 earned runs.
