The Cincinnati Reds have fallen apart at the worst time imaginable, dropping four of their last five to slide 2.5 games from the final wild-card spot in the National League. After a 7-0 loss in the opening game of this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, matters are looking even more urgent.
We’ll explain in our Reds vs. Dodgers predictions why this game could take a different shape than Monday’s, featuring two pitchers who should yield plenty of hits.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Tuesday, August 26.
Reds vs Dodgers prediction
Reds vs Dodgers best bet: Over 9 (-105)
The Cincinnati Reds may be down in the dumps with the sixth-worst wRC+ in the league over the last two weeks, and they may also prefer to hit right-handers with a slight edge against ground-ballers to boot.
The fact of the matter, though, is that none of these splits create any sizable matchup advantage (or disadvantage), and despite some rough play at the plate in the last 14 days, this is still a team hitting a hair under .250 with a sub-22% strikeout rate.
Cincinnati, then, should be in a good spot to hit the aging Los Angeles Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw. He’s completely abandoned the strikeout, opting instead for a large complement of ground balls, but he comes into this one with a lousy .268 Expected Batting Average on the year – a bad number even for a ground-ball pitcher.
That number’s around .280 in the last two months, too, leading us to believe this is a number we can reasonably trust.
I can’t help but believe in this Reds offense just a little bit, particularly with Kershaw yielding hit after hit. We’re not asking them to hit for power here – something they can’t do all that well – just keep the pressure on the lefty.
That’s the hard sell here; the easy part is telling you why Nick Martinez – one of the most troubled arms in the league – is going to struggle against the Dodgers.
L.A. owns a menacing .199 Isolated Power in the last two weeks, and for the season runs the fifth-best home run-to-fly ball ratio in the league, which has remained the case in the previous two weeks. While it may be striking out more than it’s used to, Martinez is one of the weakest in baseball when it comes to generating whiffs and punchouts, and on the opposite end of the coin, he’s surrendered 20 home runs in 145 innings.
As a contact-first arm who’s done nothing but give up fly balls, I can’t give the veteran any semblance of a chance here against a Dodgers offense that is trending upward. We cashed the Under on Monday with these teams, now we're backing the bats.
Reds vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
I don’t think there’s any question that Andy Pages is the best bat we can back on Tuesday. Not only is he hitting .294 over his last five games with two multi-hit performances, but he’s also in a great spot against a fly-ball pitcher.
Pages is hitting a solid .256 against these types in 2025 with a stellar .532 slugging percentage. He’s only going to love hitting off Martinez even more, considering the veteran does nothing but throw strikes, and Pages is one of the swing-happiest players in the league.
I expect him to connect with at least one versus Martinez, and to round things out, we’ll short Kershaw’s strikeout prop. His whiff rate was already low, and came down roughly four points under 19% this month. Cincinnati did strike out a ton against the talented Emmet Sheehan on Monday, but this is a much different pitcher – and they’re also not striking out very much at just over 21% in the second half.
Kershaw has eclipsed three punchouts just once in his last eight outings, and if he’s knocked out of this game early, the chances of a win are even greater.
Reds vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +150 | Los Angeles -179
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-141) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+118)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Reds vs Dodgers trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+6.75 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Reds vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, August 26, 2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Ohio, SNLA |
| Reds starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (10-9, 4.59 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Clayton Kershaw (8-2, 3.13 ERA) |
Reds vs Dodgers latest injuries
Reds vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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