Red Sox vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Padres Punish Paxton

The Boston Red Sox (24-20) have gotten back on track, stringing together two straight wins to secure a series victory against the Mariners after having lost six of their previous seven. They will look to keep things rolling on Friday night as they open a three-game road set with the San Diego Padres (20-24). The Padres are in desperate need of their own bounce-back, having now lost nine of their last 11 and drawing eyes on their struggles with an impromptu player meeting two nights ago.

Can the Padres turn things around and get their season back on track, or will the Red Sox take advantage of a currently dysfunctional San Diego squad?

Continue reading for free MLB picks and predictions for the Red Sox vs Padres matchup on Friday, May 19th.

Red Sox vs Padres odds

Red Sox vs Padres predictions

Through early May, things were looking golden for the 21-14 Boston Red Sox. But a seven-game stretch followed during which they lost seven straight and scored more than three runs just twice. Thankfully for Boston, their bats came back alive, and they put up nine and 12 runs, respectively, in the final two games of a three-game set with the Mariners.

After a day off Thursday, the Red Sox will get back to work and will send James Paxton to the mound in the series opener with the San Diego Padres. Paxton made his long-awaited return a week ago after missing all of the 2022 season and after playing just one game in 2021 and five games in 2020.

Paxton held the scorching-hot Cardinals to just four hits, one walk, and two earned runs in five innings of work, impressively striking out a whopping nine batters before the BoSox pen let the Cardinals run away with a 8-6 win.

Despite having pitched in just seven games since 2020, he still has a sizable sample against the Padres' current roster, who have a combined 79 plate appearances against him. It has admittedly been pretty ugly for Paxton in that sample, allowing a .301 batting average and a .548 slugging percentage. Xander Bogaerts (.304 BA, .783 SLG, 3 HRs) has mashed against Paxton across 23 ABs, and Manny Machado is 4-for-9 as well.

The Padres will need Bogaerts and Machado (who is day-to-day) to bring that track record tonight given the Padres' recent struggles. They've lost nine of their last 11 now, and that has largely come on the back of the inability to produce runs, averaging just 2.7 per game across that stretch.

Nevertheless, San Diego clearly senses the need to turn things around based on Wednesday's impromptu player meeting after their last loss on Wednesday, and with a day off and clear minds, expect the Padres to bring home the win.

My best bet: Padres moneyline (-144 at FanDuel)

Red Sox vs Padres moneyline analysis

Helping the cause is the fact that the Padres will have Blake Snell on the bump in tonight's series opener. The former Cy Young winner has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, but as of late, he has been pretty dependable.

He hasn't allowed more than three earned in a start since April 6th, and has pitched to a 3.53 ERA in his last five starts, compared to the 6.92 ERA he had accumulated prior to that. And unlike Paxton, he has a rather clean track record against the opposing batters he'll face tonight.

This current Boston roster has accrued 55 plate appearances against Snell and have managed just a .188 batting average and a .250 slugging percentage. Justin Turner (3-for-20, .150 BA and SLG) and Rafael Devers (1-for-9, .111 BA) have noticeably struggled in particular against Snell.

San Diego also comes into this series possessing a notable advantage in terms of recent form from their bullpen. Despite both teams racking up plenty of losses since May 6th, the Padres' bullpen has posted the seventh-best ERA during that time at 3.53, compared to Boston's 19th-best 3.97 ERA.

Red Sox vs Padres Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 9 and it has since moved to an even 8 across the board.

Boston has gone 29-13-2 to the Over, possessing the highest rate of Overs on the season at 69.1%. In fact, the gap between Boston and the next best Over team (Texas) is the same sized gap between the Rangers and the sixth-best team.

Some may attribute that to the run-friendly environment at Fenway, but they have posted a 11-6-1 Over/Under record on the road too (64.7%). Recent form has also heavily favored Overs, having gone 10-3-2 to the Over in their last 15.

Conversely, the Padres have played 28-14-2 to the Under, playing to the highest rate of Unders on the season at 66.7%. At home, however, they have gone 13-9 to the Under (59.1%).

The Padres, given their recent scoring struggles, have gone an absurd 13-1 to the Under in their last 14. They have also gone 7-4-1 to the Under in games with totals of 8 or less.

Given the massive discrepancy between the two, it may be best to stay away from the total altogether.

Red Sox vs Padres game info

Starting pitchers

James Paxton (0-0, 3.60 ERA): Paxton made his long awaited return a week ago after having last pitched on April 6, 2021. Injuries have taken a toll on Paxton's career as a whole, having now just pitched in seven games since the 2020 season. He held the Cardinals to two earned in five innings of work last Friday, notching nine strikeouts.

Blake Snell (1-5, 4.61 ERA): Snell is trending in the right direction after a disastrous start to his 2023 campaign. Through mid-April, he was sporting a near-7.00 ERA, but he has now gone six straight starts without allowing three earned. That includes his latest outing in which he allowed two runs in six innings of work against the Dodgers.

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