The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians close out a three-game set at Progressive Field on Thursday night. These AL squads have split the first two games in this series, and need to show more consistency if they want to make the postseason.
MLB betting lines for this contest opened with the Guardians as slim -115 home favorites, but early money has poured in on the home side, shifting that line to -140. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Guardians MLB picks and predictions for June 8.
Red Sox vs Guardians odds
Red Sox vs Guardians predictions
This line has already seen a decent amount of movement, but there's still value with the home side here.
Matt Dermody will be making a spot start for the Red Sox. Beyond the controversy of a since-deleted homophobic tweet from the southpaw, he's simply not a big-league caliber player, and is only getting the pill because Boston's rotation is in shambles.
Dermody pitched 22 1/3 innings out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays in 2017 and has logged just two innings in the majors since. He was mediocre in Japan and Korea over the last two years, and pitched to a 4.50 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP in eight starts at Triple-A Worchester this season.
The Guardians are sending Aaron Civale to the mound, and while he's no Cy Young odds candidate, he's a capable starter with plenty of experience at this level. Civale struggled at the beginning of last season, pitching to a 7.04 ERA with an OBA of .301 through his first 10 starts. However, he turned things around and had a 3.00 ERA with an OBA of .198 in his final 10 starts.
Civale has missed a significant portion of this season with an oblique injury, but he came off the IL last Friday and looked terrific against the Twins, throwing five innings of shutout ball.
The Red Sox are eighth in the majors in OPS (.758), but that number plummets to just .671 away from Fenway. They also have middling Statcast analytics, ranking 15th in hard hit rate and 20th in barrel rate, which indicates that regression is coming.
Although the Red Sox are the better hitting team in this matchup, they don't bat anywhere near as well on the road. The gap between the starting pitchers has me backing the home side here.
My best bet: Guardians moneyline (-138 at Pinnacle)
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Red Sox vs Guardians moneyline analysis
The Red Sox edged the Guardians 5-4 in the first game of this series, but mustered just five hits and had three errors in a 5-2 loss last night. That defeat dropped Boston's record to .500 on the year, while Cleveland moved to 28-33.
While the Red Sox have an impressive .758 OPS, the Guardians are second-last in the majors with an OPS of .651. That said, while the Guardians are dead-last in the majors in isolated power, they do a decent job of making contact and rarely strike out.
They should do a better job at the plate today against Dermody, who had a 4.54 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in the KBO last year and looked just as subpar at Triple-A Worchester this season.
Civale began this year by throwing seven innings of shutout ball against the Mariners, but was lit up by that same M's team in his second start just six days later. He then wound up on the IL with an oblique injury, but returned to the rotation last Friday and pitched five scoreless innings versus the Twins. The 27-year-old has gone 25-22 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 66 career starts.
The Guardians also have the edge in the bullpen, where their relievers rank second in the majors in ERA (3.13) and third in WHIP (1.17). Boston's bullpen has improved from last season but is still a middling 14th in ERA (3.87) and 13th in WHIP (1.27).
Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under analysis
The total was at 7.5 for the first game in this series before ticking up to 8 last night. That number sits at 8.5 for today, which is due to Dermody starting for Boston.
It will be interesting to see how much of a leash Alex Cora gives Dermody since all of his MLB appearances have come out of the bullpen, but he was working as a starter at Worchester.
The Red Sox are averaging 5.05 runs per game, but that number drops to 4.28 runs per game away from home. Meanwhile, the Guardians are plating just 2.90 runs per game at home.
Cleveland should be able to generate more runs today, but it's tough to break down whether they'll be able to score enough to push his game Over the total. Keep in mind that several key runs over the last couple games were scored due to errors from both sides, and they might need more miscues to get on the board today.
Red Sox vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, June 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
Starting pitchers
Matt Dermody (0-0, 18.00 ERA in 2022): Dermody pitched just a single inning for the Cubs last year and will make his MLB season debut today after going 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 44 innings at Triple-A Worchester. The 32-year-old southpaw has a 5.60 ERA in 27 1/3 innings in his MLB career.
Aaron Civale (1-1, 2.04 ERA): The 27-year-old Civale is in his fifth season in the majors and is coming off a campaign where he had a career-worst 4.92 ERA across 20 starts. However, his 3.86 FIP and 1.19 WHIP were much more respectable and in line with his career production, while he looked much better down the stretch. Civale has a six-pitch arsenal with his curveball and sinker being the most effective offerings since the start of last season.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 20-4-2 in the Guardians' last 26 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Guardians
